South Sudan at critical juncture ahead of elections, UN warns

The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has warned that South Sudan is at a critical juncture ahead of planned elections on December 22. According to Anita Kiki Gbeho, head of UNMISS, the country's fragile transition is threatened by weakening political consensus, rising insecurity, and a deepening humanitarian crisis. With 42 days until the elections, Gbeho expressed concerns about the sustainability of progress made under the 2018 peace agreement and the country's prospects for a peaceful transition beyond the polls.

Gbeho cited amendments to the National Elections Act, adopted on September 21, as a step towards facilitating elections and advancing the transition. However, she expressed concerns about security arrangements, logistical preparations, and the capacity of the National Electoral Commission to organise elections within a compressed timeframe. Delays in implementing outstanding provisions of the 2018 peace agreement also raised concerns. Gbeho noted that recent political changes had fallen short of the agreement's requirement for 35% women's representation.

The Inter-Party Dialogue has been held, but its outcome remains pending, with some opposition groups staying outside the process. The Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army-in-Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) has maintained that the release of its detained leader, Riek Machar, is a prerequisite for its participation in dialogue. Meanwhile, the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) has begun nationwide party primaries, while electoral activities among other registered political parties remain limited.

Gbeho cautioned that elections should mark a milestone in the transition rather than its conclusion, saying they could not substitute for political dialogue, confidence-building, or implementation of the peace agreement. Rising insecurity has become increasingly complex, with armed confrontations between the main signatories to the peace agreement generally declining. However, the number of people killed, injured, and displaced has risen since the beginning of the year, driven by local grievances, factional divisions, and competition over resources.

In Jonglei State, clashes involving government and opposition-aligned local forces, coupled with the mobilisation of armed youth, continued to threaten civilians and stability. In Unity State, divisions within the SPLM/A-IO had contributed to fighting around Leer and Rubkona counties. Violence in Rumbek and Greater Tonj counties last month, which reportedly killed more than 140 people, underscored the deadly consequences of persistent local conflicts. Communal violence accounted for more than 60% of reported civilian casualties this year.

Gbeho said UNMISS was strengthening its prevention and response efforts under its Security Council mandate. In Rumbek, the mission rapidly deployed personnel to help protect civilians, secure the local hospital, and support humanitarian partners. Despite assurances, UNMISS continued to face movement restrictions in conflict-affected areas, including along the Sobat River corridor, limiting its ability to respond to protection concerns and support humanitarian operations.

The humanitarian situation was also deteriorating, with about 10 million people in need of assistance. Some 1.4 million people had crossed into South Sudan since fighting erupted in neighbouring Sudan in April 2023, while an estimated 7.5 million people faced food insecurity. Gbeho warned that the political, security, and humanitarian crises risked reinforcing one another, deepening tensions and vulnerabilities across the country.

Key points

• South Sudan faces critical juncture ahead of December 22 elections due to weakening political consensus, rising insecurity, and deepening humanitarian crisis.
• UNMISS head Anita Kiki Gbeho expresses concerns about security arrangements, logistical preparations, and capacity of National Electoral Commission.
• Humanitarian situation deteriorating, with 10 million people in need of assistance, 1.4 million displaced from neighbouring Sudan, and 7.5 million facing food insecurity.