South Africa's summer grain and oilseed production season for 2026-27 is approaching with concerns over an intensifying El Niño weather pattern. Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo noted that farmers in the eastern regions will begin preparing land soon, with yellow maize and soybeans being dominant crops. Although current soil moisture conditions are favourable, the rainfall outlook remains a major concern for farmers.
The South African Weather Service warned that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation had strengthened and was expected to move towards a very strong El Niño state, potentially persisting through the 2026-27 summer season. This weather pattern is expected to bring drier and warmer conditions during the summer. As a result, grain and oilseed prices have already started to reflect these concerns, despite the record output in the 2025-26 season.
The prices of maize and soybeans have increased significantly, with white maize and yellow maize spot prices rising by 9% and 10%, respectively, compared to a month earlier. The soybean spot price increased by 13% over the same period. On 18 September, white maize was trading at about R3 965 per tonne, while yellow maize was around R3 931 per tonne, and soybeans were about R8 953 per tonne.
These price increases are notable given that South Africa had a record maize and soybean production in the previous season. Wandile Sihlobo stated that ordinarily, grain prices wouldn’t rise this much after a season of abundance. However, concerns over the 2026-27 season appear to be driving recent price movements, with ample supplies still available in silos across the country.
The focus now shifts to how much farmers will plant for the various summer grains and oilseeds and how the season unfolds amid the worrying weather outlook. The agricultural sector is also facing pressure from higher input costs, particularly fertiliser and fuel, driven by global factors such as the US-Iran war.
Wandile Sihlobo described the coming production season as potentially difficult for farmers, with planting decisions and weather conditions likely to be closely watched. The current favourable soil moisture provides some comfort, but the rainfall outlook remains a significant concern. Farmers will need to carefully plan and adapt to the challenging weather conditions.
The 2026-27 summer grain season will be crucial for South Africa's agricultural sector, with farmers, policymakers, and stakeholders closely monitoring the situation. The country's agricultural industry will need to navigate the challenges posed by the El Niño weather pattern and higher input costs to ensure a successful production season.
Key points
- El Niño weather pattern expected to bring drier and warmer conditions during the 2026-27 summer season.
- Maize and soybean prices have increased significantly amid concerns over the upcoming production season.
- Farmers face a potentially difficult production season due to higher input costs and challenging weather conditions.
