South Africa is set to hold its 2026 local elections, which are anticipated to have significant implications for the country's future political landscape. According to political analyst Stephen Grootes, these elections will serve as an early warning for the 2029 national elections, revealing the ANC's rate of decline and the potential for a major reconfiguration of the power relationship between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA). The ANC has been experiencing a decline in votes, with its share of votes across the country falling to 45.59% in the 2021 elections.
The 2026 local elections will be crucial in determining the future of South Africa's politics, as they will reveal whether issues like immigration, crime, and violence will become more urgent. The elections will also show whether individual leaders will be able to campaign effectively in the national elections. In the past, local elections have been a yardstick for national elections, with the ANC losing power in places like Joburg and Nelson Mandela Bay in 2016, indicating that it would fall to 57.5% in the national election and just 50.4% in Gauteng.
The ANC's decline in votes has been significant, with its share of votes falling further to 40.18% in the 2024 national elections. The upcoming election is likely to reveal that the ANC has fallen further, but the real question is about the rate of decline. If the ANC were to fall below 30%, it would indicate that it could be at that level or even lower in 2029. On the other hand, if the DA were to increase its share of the national vote to about 30%, it would have huge implications for the relationship between them.
The 2026 local elections will also provide insight into the potential for future coalitions in national government. If the outcome of the poll shows a variety of parties that all have about 20% support but won't work with each other, it would mean there is a strong chance there will be no durable national election in 2029. However, if voters end up supporting parties that are willing to work together to above the 50% mark, it might show the opposite.
The elections will also be an important test for party leaders, particularly Geordin Hill-Lewis, who is contesting his first election as DA leader. Hill-Lewis has a strong imprint in Cape Town politics as mayor, but the real test is whether he is able to campaign strongly in Gauteng. The ANC, on the other hand, appears to have all manner of leadership problems, with its reliance on President Cyril Ramaphosa on election posters and its inability to decide on mayoral candidates.
The 2026 local elections will provide an opportunity for the leaders of smaller parties to make some kind of mark. There are many issues in the current zeitgeist, and the person who is best able to harness one of those issues could potentially make a significant impact. The elections will also be an important signpost for which issues are becoming more politically prominent, such as immigration, crime, and violence.
Ultimately, the 2026 local elections will be a crucial indicator of South Africa's future political landscape. The results will provide insight into the ANC's rate of decline, the potential for future coalitions, and the leadership of various parties. As the country prepares for the 2029 national elections, the 2026 local elections will serve as an important early warning system.
Key points
- The ANC's rate of decline will be closely watched in the 2026 local elections.
- The elections will provide insight into the potential for future coalitions in national government.
- The leadership of various parties, particularly Geordin Hill-Lewis, will be tested in the elections.
