The South African government has decided not to set aside additional funding to manage the impacts of El Niño at this stage. According to the Department of Water and Sanitation, the government has a contingency reserve for disasters that can be drawn on if necessary. This decision comes as the country faces the threat of hotter and drier weather, which could prolong water outages in Gauteng and eThekwini this summer.
The Department of Water and Sanitation has warned that high dam levels offer protection against drought, but rising seasonal demand threatens municipal networks struggling with leaks and inadequate storage and pumping capacity. Gauteng municipalities supplied by Rand Water and eThekwini and surrounding municipalities supplied by uMngeni uThukela Water are especially vulnerable. The department identified that full dams cannot prevent supply failures within these networks, which are typically serviced by ageing pumps.
The Integrated Vaal River System, comprising 14 interconnected dams, was about 98% full, while the seven dams in the uMngeni system were about 90% full. The system is South Africa's most important bulk water supply network, supporting about 46% of the country's economy and 33%-45% of its population. Recent outages in both areas were not caused by drought, but the department warned that hotter and drier conditions could increase the risk of prolonged disruptions between October 2026 and March 2027.
Historically, Gauteng municipalities and eThekwini have been slow to issue water-use restrictions, and enforcement of these restrictions has been weak. This has exacerbated the water supply disruptions that have occurred in both areas. There has been little progress in cutting consumption and leaks in these municipalities, while investment in storage and pumping remains inadequate. Daily water consumption averages about 250 liters per person in Gauteng and eThekwini, compared with an international average of 173 liters.
Water losses amount to about 27% in Gauteng and 40% in eThekwini. The broader measure of water for which municipalities receive no revenue is about 47% and 56%, respectively. Cutting municipal demand by 10% in both regions would greatly reduce the risk of summer outages. The department emphasized that reducing leaks, cutting consumption, and enforcing restrictions when needed are crucial to mitigating the impacts of El Niño.
The agricultural sector also faces risks from lower river flows and rising irrigation needs. Absa's AgriTrends report noted that national dam storage averaged 95.5% in August, compared with 55% in August 2016. However, provincial levels varied, with the Western Cape at 80.2%, KwaZulu-Natal at 87%, and the Northern Cape at 88.6%, all below levels a year earlier. Absa warned that prolonged dry spells threaten dryland grain farmers, particularly on soils that retain less moisture.
The South African Weather Service forecasts a high likelihood of a strong El Niño during the 2026/27 summer, with peak intensity expected between October and January. The National Disaster Management Centre issued an advisory in July, calling for stronger drought preparations, contingency plans, and public awareness. The department monitors rainfall, river flows, dam storage, and groundwater, and provides scientific assessments and advice through the El Niño Southern Oscillation Reference Group.
Key points
- The South African government has a contingency reserve for disasters that can be drawn on if necessary to manage El Niño impacts.
- Gauteng municipalities and eThekwini are especially vulnerable to water supply disruptions due to ageing infrastructure and inadequate storage and pumping capacity.
- Cutting municipal demand by 10% in Gauteng and eThekwini would greatly reduce the risk of summer outages.
