Somalia's campaign against Al-Shabaab has shifted towards a model of bilateral troop deployments, Somali-led ground operations, and external military support. This approach offers tactical advantages but raises questions about coordination, sustainability, and the future role of the African Union mission. Recent operations in Lower Shabelle, coupled with increased US airstrikes, highlight the growing importance of bilateral military arrangements alongside the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).
In March 2026, Somali National Army forces, supported by AUSSOM's Ugandan contingent and international partners, recaptured Mubarak and Daarusalaam in Lower Shabelle. Subsequent operations in April targeted additional insurgent positions, with AUSSOM reporting air cover and coordinated ground action. These operations demonstrate the continued importance of cooperation between Somali forces, AU contingents, and external partners in the fight against Al-Shabaab.
The United States has maintained a significant counterterrorism air campaign in Somalia. On 17 October 2026, US Africa Command (AFRICOM) confirmed an airstrike targeting Al-Shabaab near Dhooble Airport in southern Somalia. AFRICOM's published register recorded 88 strikes in Somalia during 2026, targeting both Al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia. This illustrates the scale of US involvement in Somalia's counterterrorism efforts.
Türkiye has also expanded its military engagement with Somalia through training, defence cooperation, and the deployment of F-16 fighter aircraft, publicly demonstrated in April 2026. However, the presence of Turkish military assets does not necessarily mean they supported specific operations in Lower Shabelle. Bilateral troop deployments represent another significant development in Somalia's fight against Al-Shabaab.
According to reports, Uganda has between 4,000 and 6,000 troops deployed under bilateral arrangements, in addition to its allocated AUSSOM contingent of approximately 4,500. Ethiopia is also reported to have around 5,000 bilateral troops in Somalia, alongside its 2,500-person AU allocation. These figures are estimates rather than independently verified totals, highlighting the complexity of tracking international military involvement in Somalia.
The distinction between AUSSOM's multilateral framework and bilateral deployments is crucial. AUSSOM provides a framework for supporting stabilisation and Somali security forces, while bilateral deployments operate through national arrangements with the Somali government. Although they may complement the AU mission, their command relationships, operational priorities, and support arrangements are not necessarily identical.
The experience of 2026 points to the growing importance of bilateral military arrangements in Somalia's campaign against Al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia. The model has potential, but tactical success should not be confused with strategic victory. Its ultimate test is whether international support builds sustainable Somali security capabilities rather than enduring dependence on external forces.
Key points
- Somalia's fight against Al-Shabaab involves bilateral troop deployments and external military support.
- The United States and Türkiye have increased their military engagement with Somalia.
- The future role of the African Union mission in Somalia remains a central question.
