A recent survey conducted by Politrack Africa has revealed that Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged as the leading opposition candidate for the presidency, with 19.6 percent support. The survey, which was released during a press conference in Nairobi on Thursday, October 2, 2026, asked respondents who they would vote for if presidential elections took place today. The findings indicate that President William Ruto continues to command the overall presidential preference, leading the national tally with 45.1 percent.
The survey also gathered data on the standings of other presidential hopefuls. Kalonzo Musyoka garnered 10.3 percent support, while Fred Matiang'i secured 7.2 percent. Rigathi Gachagua received 6.0 percent, and undecided voters made up 8.4 percent of the respondents. Minor candidates, including Prof. George Wajackoyah, Martha Karua, David Maraga, James Orengo, and Jimi Wanjigi, received less than 2 percent support combined.
Public opinion on the country's trajectory remains sharply divided, according to the survey. Approximately 45.2 percent of respondents believe Kenya is moving in the right direction, while 44.6 percent think it is heading in the wrong direction. A significant 10.2 percent of respondents were uncertain about the country's direction. The survey also assessed public opinion on government sector performance, revealing mixed reactions.
The survey found that infrastructure and affordable housing sectors received positive reviews, with 16.3 percent of respondents rating them highly. Health services, including the Social Health Authority and Social Health Insurance Fund, garnered 13 percent approval, followed by agriculture at 10 percent. However, these sectors also drew significant negative feedback, with 19.2 percent of respondents rating health services poorly.
The government's anti-corruption efforts and economic conditions were also areas of concern, with 18.4 percent and 12 percent of respondents expressing dissatisfaction, respectively. Youth employment and opportunities registered a 10.4 percent negative score. The survey also explored public openness to electing Kenya's first female deputy president, with 53 percent of respondents expressing support for the idea.
Among respondents open to female deputy presidential leadership, individual preferences leaned toward Anne Waiguru, with 36 percent support, followed by Martha Karua at 27 percent, and Gladys Wanga at 15 percent. The survey was conducted between September 15 and 25, 2026, and sampled 20,419 respondents across the country. Researchers weighted the national estimates against each county's share of registered voters.
The study maintains a 95 percent confidence level and a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. The findings provide valuable insights into the current state of Kenyan politics and public opinion on key issues. Key points from the survey include: Sifuna leads opposition candidates with 19.6% support; President Ruto commands 45.1% presidential preference; 53% of respondents support electing a female deputy president.
Key points
- Sifuna leads opposition candidates with 19.6% support
- President Ruto commands 45.1% presidential preference
- 53% of respondents support electing a female deputy president
