The Kenya Meteorological Services Authority (KMSA) has predicted that the onset of short rains will commence as early as Thursday in several parts of the country. According to KMSA Director Peter Wambugu, Nyeri County is among the counties that will start experiencing the first showers of the October-November-December rains towards the end of this week. The rains are expected to intensify in the coming week.
Wambugu clarified that much of the rain will start falling from the second and third weeks of October and will continue until January next year. The weatherman has already released the October-November-December weather outlook, which predicts that most parts of the country will experience above-average rains. Only a few counties, including Turkana, West Pokot, Samburu, and Marsabit, are predicted to receive near-average rainfall during this season.
The October-November-December season results from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migrating southwards across East Africa, bringing with it increased moisture and convection. Above-average rainfall is expected in several counties, including Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Nairobi, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Isiolo, Nyandarua, Nyeri, and parts of Taita Taveta, Laikipia, Tana River, Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, and Narok.
The report has also outlined potential impacts of the October rains on both humans and the environment. While the above rainfall is expected to improve soil moisture and boost agriculture production and improve water and pasture availability for animals, KMSA has warned that the downpour could also lead to waterlogging, delayed farm operations, increased crop diseases, and challenges in transporting farm produce.
The authority is also warning of the likelihood of the outbreak of waterborne diseases such as malaria in poorly drained areas and threats of flash floods, landslides, and localized infrastructure damage. The government has already notified the public of the possibility of the country experiencing heavy rains during the period running from October to January next year.
Nyeri County Governor Mutahi Kahiga has announced that his administration has allocated Sh76 million to combat the expected rains. The county intends to utilize the Sh20 million that had remained unspent since 2015 and re-adjust its monetary priorities in the 2025/2026 supplementary budget to focus on addressing the El Niño rains.
The government has put up necessary mitigation measures to cushion Kenyans against the effects of the expected heavy deluge through a multi-agency team comprising ministries, departments, and agencies working alongside the 47 county governors. The public has been urged to remain vigilant and take early precautionary measures, particularly those living in flood-prone areas, along rivers, and other vulnerable locations.
Key points
- 18 counties have been put on red alert of being at risk of flooding and mudslides from the heavy downpour.
- The rains are expected to commence during the second and third week of October this year and extend to January in 2027.
- El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern typically associated with increased heat worldwide, as well as drought in some parts of the world and heavy rains in other parts.
