Seven armed groups in Ethiopia have formed an alliance against the federal government, according to Amanuel Assefa, vice president of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The groups, including Tigrayan forces, Amhara nationalist Fano militias, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), aim to remove the regime and facilitate a transitional government. This development has raised concerns about a potential return to conflict in the country.
The alliance was formed after over a year of talks between the groups, according to Amanuel. Fano leader Zemene Kasse will chair the alliance. The groups involved, in addition to Tigrayan forces, Fano militias, and the OLA, are four other armed groups. Amanuel expressed confidence in the alliance's success, citing their collaborative efforts.
The federal government has not yet responded to the alliance's formation. However, Kjetil Tronvoll, a regional specialist at Oslo New University College in Norway, has cast doubt on the alliance's ability to overthrow the federal government. He described the potential conflict as "a sacrificial war for the rebels" and questioned their ability to sustain it.
Tronvoll noted that if the groups coordinate their military efforts, it could pose a challenge to the government, potentially creating four to five fronts to deal with. However, he also raised concerns about the alliance's cohesion, given the different ideologies of the groups involved. The groups have clashed in the past, and territorial disputes exist between them.
Ethiopia has been plagued by armed conflicts in its two most populous regions, Oromia and Amhara. Federal forces have been fighting the OLA, designated a "terrorist organisation" by the government, since 2018. The Fano militias took up arms against the government in April 2023 after federal authorities moved to disarm them.
The alliance's formation has raised fears of a return to war, which killed around 600,000 people in the Tigray region. Both the government and the TPLF have massed troops along the border of the northern state in recent months, according to the African Union. Amanuel stated that the groups will address their problems peacefully in the future.
The situation remains uncertain, with doubts about the alliance's ability to achieve its objectives. The federal government's response to the alliance's formation will be crucial in determining the country's future.
Key points
- The alliance includes Tigrayan forces, Amhara nationalist Fano militias, and the Oromo Liberation Army.
- The groups aim to remove the federal government and facilitate a transitional government.
- The alliance's formation has raised concerns about a potential return to conflict in Ethiopia.
