Scientists from the University of Exeter and the Strategic Climate Risk Initiative have warned that climate change could have far-reaching consequences beyond environmental disasters and natural disruptions. In a study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, they highlighted the risk of climate-related shocks weakening economies, political and social institutions, and undermining cooperation necessary to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change.
The researchers identified several risks that could escalate due to climate disruption, including spiraling debt, rising political divisions, increased military spending, and declining international aid. These factors could hinder efforts to protect the environment and promote climate action. The study emphasized that rebuilding trust and institutions after they have been damaged is much more challenging than maintaining them.
The scientists drew attention to a scenario dubbed "a hothouse Earth," where the planet's average temperature could rise by over 5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. This could lead to prolonged heatwaves, droughts, crop failures, and a significant rise in sea levels. They stressed that this scenario is not solely determined by climate indicators but also by the resilience of societies.
To mitigate these risks, the researchers advocated for policies that balance two essential objectives: protecting populations from extreme weather events and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. They cautioned that measures to shield communities from climate change impacts should not become an additional burden that undermines their ability to address the crisis.
The study's findings underscore the need for policymakers to consider the potential for climate-related shocks to erode societal resilience. By incorporating "danger cascades" into climate policies, governments can better prepare for and respond to the challenges posed by climate change. This approach can help prevent a hothouse Earth scenario and promote sustainable development.
The researchers emphasized that restoring trust and rebuilding institutions after they have been damaged is a complex and time-consuming process. They warned that the erosion of these essential components could bring the world closer to a hothouse Earth scenario, even if climate indicators do not yet reflect the full extent of the risks.
The study's lead authors concluded that it is crucial to adopt a proactive approach to addressing climate change, one that prioritizes both the protection of communities and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. By doing so, governments can help ensure that efforts to address climate change do not inadvertently exacerbate the problem.
Key points
- Climate change may erode societies' ability to cope with crisis
- Scientists warn of risks of spiraling debt, rising divisions, and declining aid
- Policymakers urged to consider "danger cascades" in climate policies
