The conflict in the Middle East, now in its seventh month, continues to escalate, threatening to engulf more of the region. The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have launched missile and drone attacks on sensitive sites in Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh, marking a significant escalation. This development puts Saudi Arabia's new defence agreement with Turkey and Pakistan, known as the "Mecca pact," to its first serious test. The pact, signed into force in August, partners Saudi Arabia with two predominantly anti-Israel Sunni Muslim states.
The Houthi operations have confronted the Mecca pact with the first test of its viability. Turkey and Pakistan have both voiced support for the defence of Saudi Arabia but have not entered the conflict yet. Turkey's foreign minister indicated that the country could help Saudi Arabia's military needs. Both Turkey and Pakistan have sought to persuade Tehran to restrain the Houthis, given their good working relations with Iran. They share common borders with Iran and have acted as a mediator between Tehran and Washington in the past.
US President Donald Trump has been hesitant to involve the US in the conflict, having grown to see the limits of American power. He has rebuffed a Saudi request for strikes against the Houthis. US Vice President JD Vance stated that Washington is on top of the issue, signalling mediation between the Houthis and Riyadh. The Houthis have stated they won't target US vessels in the Red Sea. Trump has expressed a desire to see an end to the conflict and a more stable Middle East, saying the war will be over immediately after the US mid-term elections in November.
The conflict has had significant economic impacts, with consumers in the US and across the world suffering from intensified energy and economic consequences. Iran reportedly laid out its latest set of conditions to end the war with the US, including ending the war on all fronts, releasing Iran's frozen funds, and ending the naval blockade on Iranian ports. The US has not yet responded to these conditions. Iran has felt pain, too, with US military and economic pressure proving costly for the Iranian people.
The war continues to widen, with fighting extending to new fronts in Yemen. The Iran-backed Houthis have made major strategic territorial gains in the past two weeks, occupying a large chunk of western Yemen and a sliver of the southern part of the country, including the capital Sana'a. Their territory borders the strategic strait of Bab al-Mandeb on the Red Sea, a conduit for 10-12% of global maritime trade. The Houthis have greatly tightened their grip on the traffic through the strait, targeted Saudi ships, and attacked Saudi oil and infrastructure facilities.
The conflict has also had significant impacts on global trade and the economy. During the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as much as 70% of Saudi oil exports have been transported from the Abqaiq fields in the Eastern Province to Yanbu on the Red Sea for export to the outside world. This pipeline is now damaged and shut, with its repair expected to take weeks, pushing up oil prices around the world and having a massive impact on the global economy.
The US-allied Gulf Arab states are becoming disillusioned with the Trump administration, having suffered for hosting American bases and learning that they can no longer depend on the US as their security provider. For wealthy, oil-rich Saudi Arabia, a search for alternative arrangements has given rise to the Mecca pact. The Shia Muslim-dominated Iran has reportedly welcomed the pact and has even been invited to join, although Iran has denied receiving a formal invitation. At this point, there is no certainty as to where the current crisis will lead the Middle East and the world.
Key points
- The conflict in the Middle East threatens to engulf more of the region, putting Saudi Arabia's new defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan to the test.
- The US has been hesitant to get involved in the conflict, with President Trump rebuffing a Saudi request for strikes against the Houthis.
- The conflict has had significant economic impacts, with consumers in the US and across the world suffering from intensified energy and economic consequences.
