A recent classified US intelligence assessment has raised concerns about Saudi Arabia's intentions regarding nuclear weapons development. The assessment, provided to lawmakers reviewing the civilian nuclear cooperation agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia, suggests that Riyadh has not ruled out developing nuclear weapons. This has sparked worries in Congress about the implications of the deal, which was signed in July and lays the groundwork for American companies to participate in civilian nuclear projects in Saudi Arabia.
The nuclear cooperation agreement, also known as the Section 123 agreement, allows Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium domestically, although initially capped at below 5%. The enrichment level could later rise to as much as 20% with additional studies and written approval from Washington and Riyadh. While this level remains below weapons-grade, it substantially reduces the work required to reach weapons-grade concentrations. The agreement does not require Saudi Arabia to adopt the International Atomic Energy Agency's Additional Protocol, which provides broader access and tools for detecting undeclared nuclear activity.
A group of Democratic senators, led by Ed Markey and Jeff Merkley, have expressed concerns that the deal could give Riyadh the means to enrich uranium and possibly develop nuclear weapons. Merkley noted that Saudi Arabia's insistence on retaining the option of domestic enrichment raises questions about its ambitions. The State Department has rejected suggestions that Washington is facilitating a military program, stating that the US "does not and will not support a Saudi nuclear weapon program."
Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman has insisted that Riyadh's nuclear program will be "peaceful" and developed with "the highest levels of responsibility and transparency." However, concerns have been fueled by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's 2018 statement that Riyadh would seek an atomic bomb if Iran acquired one. The intelligence assessment has added to longstanding concerns about the implications of the nuclear cooperation agreement.
The agreement has been contrasted with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which capped Tehran's uranium enrichment at 3.67% for 15 years. President Donald Trump withdrew the US from that deal during his first term, claiming it was not strict enough to prevent Tehran from obtaining a bomb. The Saudi agreement was formally submitted to Congress on August 24 and is undergoing a 90-day review.
Lawmakers can seek to block the agreement, although overriding a presidential veto would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers. The review process has sparked a debate about the implications of the deal and the potential risks of nuclear proliferation in the region. The US and Saudi Arabia have negotiated a separate bilateral safeguards arrangement, which is intended to provide assurances about the peaceful nature of Riyadh's nuclear program.
The controversy surrounding the nuclear cooperation agreement highlights the challenges of balancing nonproliferation concerns with the need for civilian nuclear cooperation. As the review process continues, lawmakers will need to weigh the potential benefits of the agreement against the potential risks and consider the implications for regional security and stability.
Key points
- Saudi Arabia has not ruled out developing nuclear weapons, according to a classified US intelligence assessment.
- The US-Saudi Arabia civilian nuclear cooperation agreement has sparked concerns about nuclear proliferation in the region.
- The agreement allows Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium domestically, although with certain restrictions.
