A recent Politrack Africa poll for the Embakasi South Constituency has revealed that Samwel Masaki, an aspirant associated with the Linda Mwananchi Movement, is leading with 38.8 per cent support. This gives him a 12.6-percentage-point lead over incumbent MP Julius Mawathe, who has 26.2 per cent support. The poll, conducted on November 5, 2026, provides an early indication of voter preferences in the Nairobi constituency.
The poll also shows that ODM aspirant Jared Okello is in third place with 17.6 per cent support, followed by Victor Ochieng Ongweno with 12.3 per cent. A further 3.7 per cent of respondents are undecided, while other candidates collectively account for 1.8 per cent. The findings suggest that Masaki is in a strong position, but the poll does not establish who will eventually win the parliamentary seat.
Masaki is not new to Embakasi South politics, having previously contested the constituency's April 2019 parliamentary by-election as an independent candidate. He finished third in that contest, which was won by Mawathe. Before entering the constituency race, Masaki served as secretary-general of the Jubilee Party Youth League from 2013 to 2019.
Mawathe has represented Embakasi South since 2017, when he first won the parliamentary seat on a Wiper ticket. His initial election was subsequently nullified by the courts, leading to a by-election in April 2019, which Mawathe won. He retained the constituency in the 2022 General Election. As an accountant by profession, Mawathe has served in parliamentary committees, including the Departmental Committee on Energy and the Public Accounts Committee.
The Embakasi South constituency comprises five wards: Imara Daima, Kwa Njenga, Kwa Reuben, Kware, and Pipeline. According to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), the constituency had 167,953 registered voters in the 2022 electoral register. The electoral contest extends across communities with distinct local interests, making the eventual race dependent on more than the popularity of individual candidates.
While Masaki leads in the latest survey, the poll provides a snapshot of the emerging contest, with voter preferences potentially changing as candidates organise their campaigns, parties settle on nominees, and the 2027 election approaches. The findings offer an early indication of voter preferences, but do not necessarily determine the outcome of the election.
The Embakasi South constituency is one of Nairobi's 17 constituencies, and its electoral contest is expected to be influenced by various factors, including local interests and party dynamics. The 2027 General Election is still in the distant future, and candidates will have to navigate the complexities of the electoral process to secure the parliamentary seat.
Key points
- Samwel Masaki leads in the Embakasi South constituency poll with 38.8% support.
- Masaki has a 12.6-percentage-point lead over incumbent MP Julius Mawathe.
- The poll provides a snapshot of the emerging contest, with voter preferences potentially changing as the 2027 election approaches.
