Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka has found himself at the centre of two competing political calculations of either pursuing his long-held presidential ambition or agreeing to a political cooperation with President William Ruto. President Ruto has made open overtures targeting the 73-year-old politician, with analysts seeing the bait as intended to exploit uncertainty over Mr Musyoka’s chances of securing the opposition presidential ticket.
The emergence of Linda Mwananchi Movement (LMM) leader Edwin Sifuna and other opposition players has complicated the battle for the opposition presidential ticket, which was previously seen as Mr Musyoka’s for the taking. The opposition is now facing competing interests and ambitions, with each outfit pushing to have its candidate lead the ticket. This development has added a new layer of complexity to the already intricate politics of Tanzania.
Although teaming up with Dr Ruto does not guarantee him a plum role like the running mate slot, remaining in the opposition to pursue his presidential bid is also replete with significant risks, including missing out on the presidential ticket. For a 73-year-old politician who contested for the presidency in 2007 and twice served as the late Raila Odinga’s running mate in 2013 and 2017, the prospect of another election cycle without a presidential ticket could present a major blow to his political career of about 40 years.
Mr Musyoka and his allies are already feeling frustrated after their suggestion for an early resolution on the presidential ticket was rejected. Also, key lieutenants in the Ruto camp—Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen, Senate Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot, and the President’s aide, Farouk Kibet—appeared to let the cat out of the bag, publicly asking Mr Musyoka to cross over to the ruling side.
Mr Musyoka’s allies, however, insist that the former vice president is the only threat to Dr Ruto’s re-election plan. While admitting attempts to woo him, the Wiper politicians say Mr Musyoka has no intention of abandoning his presidential bid to join Dr Ruto. They described the broad-based government as a sinking ship that Mr Musyoka cannot join.
According to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), the three Ukambani counties have a projection of 2.2 million votes by 2027. Mr Musyoka also enjoys support in other parts of the country, making him a crucial player in the 2027 arithmetic. This explains the latest panic and confusion in the president’s corner.
It is not the first time Dr Ruto is reaching out to Mr Musyoka. Mid last year, Dr Ruto disclosed how he turned to Mr Odinga in forming the broad-based government after Mr Musyoka rejected his offer. Last week while touring Mr Musyoka’s Tseikuru backyard, President Ruto once again appeared to make similar overtures.
Key points
- President Ruto's overtures to Kalonzo Musyoka are seen as an attempt to exploit uncertainty over Mr Musyoka's chances of securing the opposition presidential ticket.
- Mr Musyoka's allies insist that he has no intention of abandoning his presidential bid to join Dr Ruto.
- The three Ukambani counties have a projection of 2.2 million votes by 2027, making Mr Musyoka a crucial player in the 2027 arithmetic.
