Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic ties, marking a significant escalation in the Horn of Africa's gravest crisis since the Tigray war. The move comes after a rebel alliance was formed, and the war in Sudan has added to the region's instability. On Thursday night, Addis Ababa ordered its embassy in Asmara to shut, and Eritrean diplomats were given 48 hours to leave. Asmara responded by severing all diplomatic ties with Ethiopia.
The diplomatic rupture follows overnight explosions in Addis Ababa, which diplomatic sources attributed to drone strikes by an opposition alliance fighting the federal government. The alliance, formed on September 20, includes seven armed groups, such as the TPLF, Amhara Fano National Movement, and Oromo Liberation Army. Their goal is to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government and install a transitional administration. This development has raised concerns about the stability of the region.
Eritrea and Ethiopia had previously fought alongside each other against Tigrayan forces in the 2020-2022 war, which resulted in an estimated 600,000 deaths. However, their alliance did not survive the peace, and tensions have been rising over issues such as sea access and territorial claims. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's insistence on Ethiopia's right to sea access has been perceived by Eritrea as a territorial claim on its coastline.
The Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, formed on September 20, has declared its aim to topple Abiy's government. The alliance includes groups that fought on opposite sides of the last war, such as the TPLF and Amhara Fano National Movement. Fighting resumed on September 23, with TPLF-aligned forces seizing civilian airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire. The federal government has since advanced in southern Tigray and claims to have retaken towns in Afar.
Eritrea has denied allegations that its soldiers have crossed into Afar to join the alliance's offensive. However, Afar's chief administrator, Haji Awol Arba, claims that Eritrean soldiers have indeed entered the region. Eritrea has countered that Ethiopia is hosting, training, and arming Eritrean opposition groups. The African Union has reported that communications in Tigray have been largely cut since Friday.
The conflict has also drawn in other countries, with Ethiopia's army chief, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, accusing Sudan and Egypt of sponsoring the forces his troops face, and Eritrea of being the go-between. However, these claims have been denied by Eritrea, Egypt, and Sudan. The accusations are part of a larger web of tensions, including the Nile dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
The US decision to allow its 2021 sanctions regime on Eritrea to lapse on September 18 has also been seen as a significant development. The move was intended to advance American regional interests, particularly in the Red Sea. However, it has removed a pressure point on Eritrea just as it became the center of Addis Ababa's accusations. The situation remains volatile, with concerns about the impact on Djibouti's lifeline, which handles most of Ethiopia's imports.
Key points
- Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic ties amid escalating conflict in the Horn of Africa.
- A rebel alliance has been formed to topple Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.
- The conflict has drawn in other countries, including Sudan and Egypt, and has significant implications for regional stability.
