The Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng has released its October electoral map, projecting a shift in the distribution of states among the major political blocs ahead of Nigeria's 2027 presidential election. At a press conference in Maryland, Lagos, the convener of PIG, Lai Omotola, stressed that the monthly electoral map should not be interpreted as a declaration of the eventual election result, but as a snapshot of the political landscape based on developments at the time of the assessment.
According to Omotola, the purpose of the exercise is to enable political parties and candidates to identify areas of strength and weakness and adjust their strategies accordingly. The October assessment comes after a month marked by several developments that PIG said could influence the political calculations ahead of the 2027 election. These developments include the reported denial of entry into Benue State involving Peter Obi, one of President Bola Tinubu's leading political opponents.
Omotola also cited the controversy surrounding President Tinubu's working vacation, which generated debate over the president's absence from the country, as another development considered in the group's assessment. The group also pointed to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar's continued focus on the fuel subsidy issue and what it described as a "sudden turnaround" as part of the political developments observed during the month.
Beyond individual political figures, PIG also assessed the level of mobilisation by the major political parties. Omotola said the APC appeared to be conducting more campaign-related mobilisation across the country, followed by the NDC, while the ADC had established a Presidential Campaign Council but had yet to embark on major nationwide campaigns. He also drew attention to an emerging disagreement between some APC governors and the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike.
Under the October projection, PIG said the APC would record a net reduction in its projected state tally, falling from 20 states in September to 19 states in October. The movement is attributed to the ruling party losing Rivers State while gaining Adamawa State. This change means Adamawa becomes one of the states responsible for the movement in the projected electoral map between the two months.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC), according to the October assessment, also experiences a reduction in its projected reach. PIG said the party, which was projected to win nine states in September, would secure eight states in October, with Adamawa moving into the APC column. Meanwhile, the NDC projection increased, with PIG's October assessment placing the NDC at 10 states, compared with eight states in the September map.
Summarising the October assessment, Omotola said: "The summation of the projection is APC is leading with 19 states, NDC with 10 states and ADC with 8 states." He immediately added an important qualification to the figures, stressing that the projection assumes a free and fair electoral process.
Key points
- The Political Intelligence Group projects the APC to win 19 states, the NDC 10 states, and the ADC 8 states in the October electoral map.
- The projection assumes a free and fair electoral process.
- The October assessment considered several developments, including the reported denial of entry into Benue State involving Peter Obi and the controversy surrounding President Tinubu's working vacation.
