The Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) in Ghana has forecasted a significant rise in fuel prices effective October 1, 2026. Diesel is expected to see the highest increase at 22.91%, while petrol is projected to rise by 5.21%. These projections are based on current market trends and the impact of international fuel price hikes. COPEC's predictions indicate that diesel will increase from GH¢18.24 per litre to GH¢22.42 per litre. This substantial rise is attributed to both global crude oil price increases and the local currency's depreciation against the US dollar.
According to COPEC, the global crude oil price has risen from US$103.07 per barrel to US$124 per barrel during the pricing window. This sharp increase in international prices, coupled with a marginal depreciation of the cedi, has led to the projected fuel price hikes. For petrol, the Free on Board (FOB) price increased from $1251.07/MT to $1304.39/MT, representing a 4.26% rise. With a 1.20% currency depreciation, the retail price of petrol is expected to be around GH¢17.78 per litre. This translates to a 5.21% increase from the current mean price of GH¢16.90 per litre.
The projected retail price for diesel is expected to be significantly higher due to an 8.51% increase in its FOB price, from $12404.73/MT to $1524.22, and the cedi's 1.20% depreciation. Consequently, diesel's retail pump price is projected to rise to GH¢22.42 per litre, a 22.91% increase from its current mean price of GH¢18.24 per litre. COPEC's analysis suggests that diesel will likely be sold within a range of GH¢19.40 per litre to GH¢21.44 per litre, with a ±5% margin of error.
In addition to petrol and diesel, the price of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) is also expected to increase. The international FOB price of LPG rose by 9.10% from $712.43/MT to $777.59/MT, and with the cedi's 1.20% depreciation, the projected retail price of LPG is expected to be around GH¢15.68 per kilogram. Consequently, LPG prices are likely to range between GH¢14.89 per kilogram and GH¢16.48 per kilogram, with a ±5% error margin.
COPEC has commended the Ghanaian government for ensuring a continuous supply of crude oil to local refineries, supporting round-the-clock production. However, the organization has urged the government to expedite the expansion of the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) to increase its refining capacity from 45,000 barrels per day to 100,000 barrels per day. This expansion is expected to help stabilize fuel prices in the long term by increasing local production.
COPEC has also appealed to Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) to consider reducing their margins to cushion consumers against the impact of the projected price increases. By reducing their margins, OMCs can help mitigate some of the financial burden on consumers. The organization believes that such measures can help alleviate the impact of rising fuel prices on the general public.
The fuel price projections by COPEC are based on detailed analyses of international market trends and local economic factors. The organization plays a crucial role in monitoring and reporting fuel price trends in Ghana. Its projections serve as a guide for consumers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders. As the October 1, 2026 pricing window approaches, consumers and industry players will be watching closely to see how these projections translate into actual fuel prices.
Key points
- Petrol is expected to increase by 5.21% to GH¢17.78 per litre.
- Diesel is projected to rise by 22.91% to GH¢22.42 per litre.
- LPG prices are expected to increase significantly, potentially selling at GH¢15.68 per kilogram.
