According to climate scientists, over 450,000 people may die by February next year due to extreme heat caused by a powerful El Niño event. This number adds to the existing early deaths caused by rising temperatures due to the climate crisis. The effects of El Niño will be felt globally, from Indonesia and India to Nigeria and the United States. The phenomenon is also expected to cause droughts, wildfires, and floods, leading to more fatalities.
Researchers have estimated heat-related deaths on a regional level, identifying areas where measures can be taken to protect populations and save lives. These measures include improving heatwave predictions, providing cooling centers, increasing medical staff during heatwaves, and protecting outdoor workers. The study's findings are based on historical data and climate models, which suggest that El Niño events can have devastating consequences.
The current El Niño event has already broken records, with temperatures soaring to the highest levels ever recorded. Scientists describe the event as "stunning" and "on the level of Godzilla." Although El Niño events are natural climate phenomena, global warming is expected to exacerbate their impact. The event is expected to peak in the coming months, with severe consequences for global food supplies.
The study's lead author, Professor Michael Greenstone, emphasized that the estimated 451,000 deaths represent real people, including parents, children, and grandparents. The researchers used a rigorous methodology, analyzing historical data and climate models to estimate heat-related deaths. The study's findings are based on data from 24,378 areas worldwide.
The countries most affected by the El Niño event are expected to be tropical nations, including Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil. The United States is also expected to be impacted, with an estimated 3,500 additional heat-related deaths. The Sahel region in Africa and Southeast Asia are among the areas most vulnerable to the effects of El Niño.
The El Niño event is seen as a "message from our future," with temperatures expected to rise to levels predicted for the climate crisis in 20 years. The study's findings highlight the urgent need for climate action and preparedness. The World Food Programme has warned that El Niño could push 50 million people into acute hunger and drive up food prices.
The 1877-1878 El Niño event was particularly devastating, causing over 50 million deaths due to drought and famine in India, Brazil, and China. The current event is expected to have similar consequences, emphasizing the need for governments and international organizations to take proactive measures to mitigate its impact.
Key points
- Over 450,000 heat-related deaths are expected by February next year due to El Niño.
- The El Niño event is expected to affect tropical nations, including Nigeria, Indonesia, and India.
- The phenomenon could push 50 million people into acute hunger and drive up food prices.
