Oil prices were largely unchanged in early Asian trading on Thursday, following gains in the previous session and a significant increase in September. Investors are evaluating the outcome of US-Iran peace talks and expectations for crude oil exports from the Middle East. Brent crude futures rose 12 cents, or 0.1%, to $98.15 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $90.35 per barrel.
Both benchmark crudes increased by around $1 per barrel on Wednesday. In September, Brent crude posted a 14% monthly gain, the largest since July, while WTI rose by 5%. According to Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, buying continued due to concerns about supplies amid stalled peace talks, but selling pressure also emerged as signs of recovering Middle East oil exports appeared.
Tazawa noted that WTI needs a new catalyst, such as progress in peace negotiations, to break through the immediate support level of $88 per barrel. On Tuesday, Qatar expressed hope that shuttle diplomacy between Tehran and Washington would lead to a breakthrough. However, US President Donald Trump denied reports that he was willing to ease sanctions on Iran and release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for concrete steps on its nuclear program.
Saudi Arabia resumed loading oil tankers from the Yanbu port on Tuesday, after restarting operations on the East-West pipeline. Goldman Sachs estimated that oil exports from the Gulf region, including "dark exports" from tankers operating with disabled location devices, recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day last week, consistent with the 2025 average.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, are likely to keep their production targets unchanged for November when they meet on Sunday. In the US, crude oil inventories rose by 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels in the week ending September 25, according to the Energy Information Administration.
This was in contrast to analysts' expectations of a 264,000-barrel decline. However, fuel inventories declined sharply due to strong seasonal and global demand. The stability of oil prices reflects the market's cautious approach as it awaits developments in US-Iran peace talks and the recovery of Middle East oil exports.
The outcome of these factors will likely influence oil prices in the coming days. For now, investors are closely monitoring the situation to gauge the potential impact on the global oil market.
Key points
- Oil prices remain stable amid US-Iran peace talks and Middle East export recovery.
- Investors await developments in peace talks and export recovery to gauge the impact on the global oil market.
- OPEC+ is likely to keep production targets unchanged for November.
