Nigeria's Disaster Deaths Can Be Prevented With Early Action, Experts Say

Nigeria is at risk of more disaster deaths and destruction if it doesn't strengthen its emergency preparedness systems, improve institutional coordination, and ensure timely release of funds, according to policy experts at Nextier. Dr. Chibuike Njoku and Dr. Ndu Nwokolo made the call in a policy brief examining the country's recurring difficulties in translating early-warning information into preventive action. They identified weak institutional coordination, inadequate state capacity, delayed financing, and poor accountability as major obstacles undermining Nigeria's ability to anticipate and manage emergencies.

The experts noted that flooding, climate-related hazards, disease outbreaks, and conflict-induced displacement continue to place pressure on public institutions, disrupt livelihoods, and increase humanitarian needs. Citing figures from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, they said the 2024 floods displaced approximately 1.2 million people, destroyed about 116,000 homes, and damaged 1.4 million hectares of farmland. The 2022 floods displaced approximately four million people, exposing weaknesses in the country's preparedness architecture.

Nigeria has established institutional and policy frameworks, including the National Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction, but the existence of such policies does not necessarily translate into effective implementation. The experts argued that the critical challenge is ensuring that risk information and official warnings trigger coordinated decisions, timely funding, and practical interventions before emergencies escalate. They identified four major bottlenecks in the country's early-action system: delays in converting warnings into decisions, inadequate access to contingency financing, weak local implementation capacity, and insufficient accountability for preparedness activities.

The experts stressed that federal, state, and local governments must work together, while agencies responsible for weather forecasting, hydrological information, health, infrastructure, and environmental management must strengthen information sharing. On health emergencies, Njoku and Nwokolo said Nigeria's experience with Ebola and Lassa fever demonstrated the need to improve early detection, risk communication, and coordination among public health institutions. They cited the Ebola case confirmed by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention on October 20, 2026.

The Lassa fever burden is also a concern, with the NCDC recording 1,138 confirmed cases and 268 deaths by epidemiological week 40 of 2026, representing a case fatality rate of 23.6 per cent, compared with 18.6 per cent in 2025. The experts maintained that health preparedness should be integrated into Nigeria's broader anticipatory governance framework rather than treated as a separate emergency management responsibility. They called on the Federal Government to institutionalize operational early-action protocols under NEMA and the NCDC.

To address the challenges, the experts recommended stronger intergovernmental coordination involving state governments, State Emergency Management Agencies, State Ministries of Health, local governments, and relevant technical institutions. They also urged federal and state governments to establish transparent, predictable contingency funding arrangements that would allow resources to be released once agreed early-action triggers were reached. Targeted investments in trained emergency personnel, communication systems, updated risk maps, evacuation plans, emergency equipment, and accessible shelters are also necessary.

The experts recommended a national preparedness performance framework to assess whether warnings trigger action, funds are released promptly, local institutions are operationally ready, and preventive interventions reach vulnerable communities. For health emergencies, the framework should monitor the time between symptom onset and confirmation, as well as the completion of contact tracing and follow-up. Nigeria's priority should be strengthening existing structures to ensure that early warnings translate into timely and measurable interventions.

Key points

• Experts warn that Nigeria's disaster deaths can be prevented with early action and improved emergency preparedness.
• The country's experience with Ebola and Lassa fever demonstrates the need to improve early detection, risk communication, and coordination among public health institutions.
• Experts recommend stronger intergovernmental coordination and transparent contingency funding arrangements to address the challenges.