The Namibia Meteorological Service has issued a warning that the 2026/27 rainy season may bring below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures across much of the country. According to forecasts, some areas could receive only 70% to 90% of their long-term average rainfall. This prediction suggests that temperatures in parts of the country could rise by as much as 3°C above average between January and March 2027.
The Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum, held in Swakopmund in August, also pointed to below-normal rainfall across much of the central and southern parts of Southern Africa, as well as above-normal temperatures. This warning was echoed by the Food and Agriculture Organisation, which has called for early action to mitigate the effects of the impending drought. The organisation recommends having seed, livestock feed, and financing ready before the season deteriorates.
Namibia has experienced the devastating impacts of El Niño-induced droughts in the past. During the 2015/16 season, one of the strongest El Niño events on record contributed to severe drought conditions, resulting in a 62% decline in maize production and a 39% decline in mahangu production compared to the previous five-year average. The country is now entering another potentially dry season after several difficult agricultural years.
The country's agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable, with Namibia's grain self-sufficiency rate falling to only 8% in the 2024/25 marketing year, according to the Namibian Agronomic Board. White maize self-sufficiency fell to 11%, mahangu to 12%, and wheat to just 2%. This means that another major production shock will have far-reaching impacts on food prices, household incomes, livestock markets, imports, rural livelihoods, and national food security.
The El Niño discussion in Namibia must go beyond rainfall, as the country's water management systems will come under additional pressure as temperatures rise. With only about 2% of rainfall becoming surface runoff and approximately 1% seeping underground, Namibia has very little room for waste when rainfall declines. The country's dams, aquifers, rivers, and water supply systems will face increased pressure, affecting households, municipalities, and agriculture.
Recent drought years have already shown how declining dam levels can affect irrigated agriculture. In 2024/25, Namibia's wheat production fell dramatically, with reduced irrigation linked to low water levels at Hardap Dam. To mitigate these impacts, the government must immediately activate an anticipatory response, including water management strategies, to avoid emergency measures such as water trucking after supplies have failed.
The response to the impending drought must be proactive and multi-faceted, involving government, farmers, and other stakeholders. By taking early action, Namibia can reduce the risks associated with the impending El Niño event and minimise the impacts on the country's agricultural sector, food security, and overall economy.
Key points
- Namibia faces a high risk of severe drought and temperature increases during the 2026/27 rainy season due to an impending El Niño event.
- The country's agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable, with a grain self-sufficiency rate of only 8% in the 2024/25 marketing year.
- The government must immediately activate an anticipatory response, including water management strategies, to mitigate the impacts of the impending drought.
