The Bank Al-Maghrib, Morocco's central bank, has forecasted that the country's economic growth will slow down to 4.4% this year and 2.9% in 2027. The bank's forecast is based on the expected performance of various sectors, including agriculture and non-agricultural activities. The bank's governor, Abdellatif Jouahri, presented the forecast during the bank's quarterly meeting.
The agricultural sector is expected to see a significant increase in value-added growth, with a 16% rise this year, driven by a good harvest. However, this growth is expected to decline by 7.6% in 2027, assuming a return to average grain production of 50 million quintals. The non-agricultural sector is also expected to slow down, with growth declining from 4.5% in 2025 to 3.1% this year.
The slowdown in economic growth is attributed to various factors, including a decline in some industries, such as extractive and manufacturing industries. However, the bank expects growth to pick up in 2027, with a forecasted growth rate of 4%. The bank's forecast also takes into account the impact of various external and internal factors on the economy.
In the labor market, the number of new jobs created has continued to rise, with 406,000 new jobs created in the second quarter of 2026, according to the High Commission for Planning. The unemployment rate has also declined, with a rate of 9.5% recorded in the second quarter of 2026, down from previous quarters.
The decline in unemployment has been driven by a decrease in urban unemployment, which stood at 11.9%, while rural unemployment stood at 4.5%. The bank's forecast also suggests that the labor market is expected to continue to improve, with a further decline in unemployment expected in the coming years.
The Bank Al-Maghrib's forecast is based on various assumptions, including the expected performance of the global economy and the impact of various external factors on Morocco's economy. The bank's governor has emphasized the need for continued economic reforms to ensure sustainable growth and job creation.
The bank's forecast has implications for Morocco's economic policy, with a focus on promoting sustainable growth and job creation. The government has emphasized the need for economic reforms to address various challenges facing the economy, including high unemployment and inflation.
Key points
- Morocco's economic growth is expected to slow down to 4.4% this year and 2.9% in 2027.
- The agricultural sector is expected to see a significant increase in value-added growth, with a 16% rise this year.
- The number of new jobs created has continued to rise, with 406,000 new jobs created in the second quarter of 2026.
