Morocco's central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib, has maintained its key interest rate at 2.25% for the sixth consecutive time, as part of its cautious approach to monetary policy. This decision was made during its September 2026 meeting, reflecting a balance between contained domestic inflation, revised downward growth prospects, and rising external risks. The move is seen as a prudent choice given the current global economic landscape.
According to Attijari Global Research (AGR), the decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was driven by several factors, including contained inflation and revised growth prospects. In August 2026, Morocco's inflation rate stood at -0.3% year-on-year, primarily due to a 3.9% decline in food prices, which offset a 7.3% increase in transportation costs. However, some indicators suggest caution is warranted, as the consumer price index rose by 0.8% month-on-month in August.
AGR's analysis, led by Lamyae Oudghiri and Meryeme Hadi, suggests that the current inflation trajectory supports the decision to maintain the status quo. The research firm has revised its inflation forecast for 2026 downward to 0.7%, from 1.5% previously, with expectations of a rise to 1.5% in 2027. The underlying inflation rate is expected to increase from -0.2% in 2026 to 2.2% in 2027.
The Moroccan economy is expected to grow at a rate of 4.4% in 2026, a downward revision from the previous estimate of 5.2%. This slowdown is attributed to a less favorable outlook for non-agricultural activities, which are expected to grow at 3.1%, compared to 4.2% previously. However, the agricultural sector is expected to see a 16% increase in value-added, driven by a cereal harvest of 93 million quintals.
AGR believes that an immediate tightening of monetary policy could weigh heavily on economic activity. The current financing conditions remain relatively favorable, with bank credit to the non-financial sector expected to grow by 8.1% in 2026, up from 4.8% in 2025. However, lending rates have increased by 15 basis points to 4.81% in the second quarter.
The global economic landscape has become more challenging, with the US Federal Reserve raising its interest rates by 25 basis points in September. This development has implications for Morocco's monetary policy, as the country must navigate the impact of a more restrictive global monetary environment.
Bank Al-Maghrib's decision to maintain the key interest rate at 2.25% reflects its cautious approach to managing the country's economy. With inflation contained and growth prospects revised downward, the central bank has opted for a prudent stance, taking into account the potential risks and uncertainties in the global economy.
Key points
- Morocco's central bank maintains key interest rate at 2.25% for sixth consecutive time
- Inflation rate stands at -0.3% year-on-year in August 2026
- Economic growth expected to reach 4.4% in 2026, a downward revision from 5.2% previously
