Mo Ibrahim, the Sudanese-British billionaire and prominent governance campaigner, has delivered a verdict on Africa's political health, warning that democracy and human rights are declining across the continent. Ibrahim, 80, attributes this decline to Africa's leaders taking cues from the rise of strongmen worldwide. He notes that the continent's leaders are reading headlines from Washington, Moscow, and Europe, and drawing a dangerous conclusion. This warning comes from a man who has spent two decades carefully choosing his words.
The Mo Ibrahim Foundation's new index, launched at the American University in Cairo, covers all 54 African countries over the decade from 2016 to 2025, drawing on over 90 indicators. The index reveals a split decision: 30 countries, home to half of Africa's population, scored better on overall governance in 2025 than in 2016, largely due to improved economies. However, 23 countries deteriorated, and one remained unchanged. The report finds broad progress on economic opportunity and human development but steep declines in security, human rights, and public participation.
Ibrahim points to two recent elections as examples of the decline in democracy and human rights. In Tanzania, President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared the winner with about 98 percent of the vote after her two biggest challengers were excluded from the race. Security forces were accused of killing protesters on a large scale, with estimates ranging from 518 to thousands. In Uganda, opposition leader Bobi Wine was "hunted and physically attacked," according to Ibrahim. These cases share a script: excluding serious challengers, shutting down the information space, deploying security forces, and labeling the resulting anger as foreign interference.
Ibrahim's explanation for the decline in democracy and human rights is partly attributed to the erosion of liberal democracy worldwide. He argues that African leaders watch a world where strongmen are rewarded rather than punished and calculate accordingly. He singled out the Trump administration's turn to "transactional kind of diplomacy," which he says is weakening the international order and the rule of law. This shift in global politics has reduced the cost of abuse for African leaders, as democratic conditionality is no longer consistently applied.
The Mo Ibrahim Foundation's index also reveals that seven of the ten countries with the biggest declines in governance experienced at least one coup over the decade. Burkina Faso recorded the largest deterioration, while Nigeria, Sudan, and Tunisia were also among the worst performers. Ibrahim's thesis has limits, and a fair analysis must acknowledge that Africa's coup belt did not need Washington's example. The causes of the decline are also homegrown, including insecurity, weak institutions, and leaders who prioritize survival over service.
Ibrahim's second warning concerns the impact of the US decision to terminate USAID abruptly, ending billions of dollars of support to African countries. He called it "brutal" and emphasized the need for Africa to face reality. However, his reading of the aftermath is strikingly unsentimental. Africa has proved fairly resilient so far, and the cuts have forced the continent "to face reality." His prescription is self-reliance paired with open doors: depend more on ourselves and work with every partner willing to work with Africa.
Ibrahim's call for self-reliance is a pan-African realism that fits the moment. However, it is crucial that self-reliance is not mistaken for self-isolation and that domestic resources are not captured by the same elites the index keeps flagging. The African average on democratic elections has fallen from 43.1 in 2016 to 38.3 in 2025, with Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger among the most deteriorated. While the backsliding seen since 2018 appears to be leveling out from 2023, a plateau at a lower altitude is still a plateau.
Key points
- Mo Ibrahim warns that Africa's leaders are taking cues from the rise of strongmen worldwide, leading to a decline in democracy and human rights.
- The Mo Ibrahim Foundation's index reveals a decline in governance in 23 African countries over the decade from 2016 to 2025.
- Ibrahim calls for African self-reliance paired with open doors to address the continent's challenges.
