Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won Brazil's presidential election, garnering 51.79% of valid votes. This unexpected outcome reverses the first-round result won by Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula gained about 10.4 million additional votes between the two rounds. Defeated, right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro announced that he would ask for the election to be annulled, but his party, the Liberal Party (PL), later acknowledged the result. Lula's victory marks a significant shift in Brazil's political landscape.
Lula's win can be attributed to three key factors, including a package of social measures. These measures include an increase in Bolsa Família, the government's flagship cash-transfer program, and benefits for individual microentrepreneurs (MEI). Lula's government also approved a bill reducing the working week from six to five days with no loss of pay. This legislation was a crucial factor in determining voters' choices, with 17% of voters citing it as the most important news item.
Lula's campaign successfully mobilized supporters in the streets and on social media. Large rallies, called by students and young people, brought millions of people onto the streets. The largest rally in support of Lula took place in São Paulo on October 24. Demonstrators sang the Independence Anthem of Brazil, referencing Brazil's independence from external intervention. Social media also played a significant role, with Lula's campaign using WhatsApp and other platforms to boost his profile.
Allegations of election interference by Meta, the parent company of Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp, also surfaced during the campaign. Meta denied any favouritism, but internal messages revealed by Folha de S. Paulo showed that Lula's campaign had been unable to boost posts for nearly 24 hours in October. In response, Lula's supporters created the "Lula's Army," a WhatsApp channel that gathered over 10 million members.
Lula's campaign strategy also focused on increasing voter turnout in areas with traditionally low participation. The campaign added 3 million people to the electorate, bringing the abstention rate to its lowest level in 20 years at 19.2%. Another 1.8 million people who had cast blank or spoiled ballots earlier decided to choose a candidate. This historic shift between the two rounds contributed significantly to Lula's victory.
Geographically, Lula's gains were not concentrated in any one area, with Lula winning 51.6% of the country's municipalities. Five of the 26 states, plus the Federal District, gave Lula a significant increase of 7 percentage points more than in the first round. The South-East provided nearly half of the influx of new voters for Lula. Despite this, the profile of Lula's and Bolsonaro's voters largely remains the same as before.
Lula's victory has significant implications for Latin America and the global far right. Brazil's nonalignment sounds a warning to the global far right, and Lula's win points to strategies for containing far-right success in other countries. The outcome is also a personal defeat for Donald Trump, who had invested energy and influence in the region without openly declaring his support.
Key points
- Lula da Silva won Brazil's presidential election with 51.79% of valid votes.
- Lula's victory can be attributed to social measures, street protests, and social media mobilization.
- The outcome of the election has significant implications for Latin America and the global far right.
