Libyan political analyst Abdulbasit Al-Qadri has expressed concerns that the country's crisis may escalate into civil disobedience and popular movements if a referendum on the constitution is not held. In a recent interview with Al-Wast TV, Al-Qadri criticized the UN mission in Libya, stating that it has become more focused on managing the crisis rather than leading efforts to find a real solution. He cited the mission's frequent changes in approach, including the formation of various committees, as a major obstacle to progress.
Al-Qadri pointed to the UN mission's transition from one approach to another, citing the advisory committee, structured dialogue, and the 4+4 committee, as examples of failed attempts to resolve the crisis. Despite consuming significant time, effort, and resources, these initiatives have not yielded tangible results in terms of unifying power, organizing elections, or ending the transitional phase. This has created an opportunity for other initiatives, including a US-backed move led by Masoud Bols.
The analyst warned that regional rivalries, particularly between Turkey and Egypt, could further complicate the Libyan scene in the absence of a clear international consensus on a settlement. He also expressed skepticism about the possibility of resolving the crisis through the formation of new committees or the reorganization of existing institutions, stressing that a genuine will to compromise among rival parties is essential. Al-Qadri called on the UN mission to focus on holding a referendum on the draft constitution, followed by parliamentary and presidential elections.
Al-Qadri linked the continuation of institutional divisions to the prolongation of the crisis, noting that the rift has extended to the judiciary, intelligence services, and other institutions that previously operated within a unified state. He attributed the persistence of the crisis to the conflicting interests and external affiliations of rival parties, which hinder efforts to resolve the situation. The ongoing crisis has had significant impacts on citizens' lives, including school closures, teacher protests, and a deterioration in living conditions.
Some political parties have used dialogue as a means of buying time and gaining advantages rather than committing to a settlement. Al-Qadri suggested that recent positions taken by the Presidential Council may not necessarily reflect its ability to impose solutions but rather an attempt to raise the stakes in future negotiations. He warned that continued political maneuvering without tangible results could lead to the emergence of national forces, including politicians, unionists, and youth, who are prepared to take action.
These national forces may resort to popular protests and civil disobedience if the UN mission fails to move forward with the constitution referendum. Al-Qadri also questioned the feasibility of unifying the judiciary through a small committee alone, arguing that this would require a compromise among rival parties and their concessions. He touched on the division within the intelligence services, accusing certain parties and external actors of interfering in the agency's operations and undermining Libya's national security.
The ongoing stalemate has significant implications for Libya's future, with the potential for further instability and conflict. The international community is urged to support a peaceful resolution to the crisis through a genuine and inclusive dialogue. The Libyan people are eagerly awaiting a sustainable solution that addresses their needs and aspirations.
Key points
- Libyan political analyst Abdulbasit Al-Qadri warns of civil disobedience if the constitution referendum is not held.
- The UN mission's handling of the Libyan crisis has been criticized for being ineffective.
- Regional rivalries and external interference may further complicate the Libyan scene.
