Liberian President Joseph Nyuma Boakai has sparked speculation about his potential re-election bid for 2029, leaving many to ponder the implications of his candidacy on the country's presidential succession. At the Liberia Diaspora Annual Conference in Alexandria, Virginia, Boakai addressed a hall full of Liberians, pressing them to turn their patriotism, skills, and money into measurable projects at home. When asked if he would run again, Boakai did not provide a direct answer, instead turning the question around and smiling, saying "I am still entitled to one term."
Boakai's response has set tongues wagging, with many analyzing the arithmetic behind his answer. Born on November 30, 1944, Boakai would be 84 on election day in 2029 and 91 by the end of a second six-year term. Although the Constitution allows him to run, Liberians will debate whether he should. This is not the first time Boakai's potential re-election has been hinted at; in June, Vice President Jeremiah Koung stated that Boakai intended to seek a second term, with Koung as his campaign manager.
Vice President Jeremiah Koung has much riding on Boakai's potential re-election bid. At 48, Koung is young enough to wait but ambitious enough that waiting is painful. A Boakai second term would push Koung's presidential aspirations to 2035. However, Koung has chosen to support Boakai rather than fight it, describing his role as "paving the roads for the president of Liberia to come back." This calculated bet may pay off, but it also risks creating tensions within the coalition.
Finance Minister Augustine Kpehe Ngafuan, a loyalist with a long memory, is another key figure who knows what it means to put ambition on hold. Ngafuan was national campaign manager for Boakai's 2017 presidential run and has spent recent days at the UN General Assembly, laying out a goal of reaching 75 percent electricity access by 2029-2030. A Boakai second term would ask Ngafuan to step back and wait, potentially competing with Koung and a new generation of politicians.
The opposition has seized on the opportunity to cooperate ahead of 2029, with five parties signing a joint communiqué committing to closer cooperation. Former President George Weah, Alexander Cummings, Maxwell Kemayah, Simeon Freeman, and Mason of the ULDP attended the roundtable, accusing the government of various shortcomings. However, they stopped short of discussing who would lead the opposition in 2029.
An open seat in 2029 would have invited every opposition heavyweight to believe his moment had come, potentially undermining the opposition's chances. An incumbent on the ballot, however, concentrates minds, making the election a referendum on one man's record and one government's promises. The margins invite the opposition to try, with Boakai beating Weah in 2023 by roughly 20,567 votes.
Ultimately, the verdict on a second Boakai term will not be delivered in a Virginia ballroom but by ordinary Liberians. The market woman in Red-Light, the motorcyclist in Ganta, and the teacher in Voinjama will decide in October 2029. They did not get to answer the President's question on Sunday, but their voices will be crucial in shaping the country's future.
Key points
- President Joseph Boakai sparks speculation about his potential re-election bid for 2029.
- Vice President Jeremiah Koung supports Boakai's potential re-election bid, potentially paving the way for his own presidential aspirations in 2035.
- The opposition has committed to closer cooperation ahead of 2029, but has not yet discussed who will lead the opposition.
