The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has issued a five-day weather forecast covering all 47 counties, valid from Thursday, October 1, to Monday, October 5, 2026. The forecast indicates light to moderate rainfall in several parts of the country, with conditions expected to remain dry in a number of northern and western counties early in the period before showers set in from the weekend. The forecast was released on September 29, 2026, from the authority's offices at Dagoretti Corner along Ngong Road in Nairobi.
Nairobi and Central Kenya are expected to experience varied weather conditions during the period. Nairobi will enjoy sunny intervals on Thursday and Friday before light rains move in on Saturday morning, with moderate afternoon showers expected on both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures in the capital will range between a minimum of 12°C on Thursday and a maximum of 28°C, dipping to a high of 24°C by Monday. Across the Mt Kenya region, counties including Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a and Kiambu are forecast to receive moderate showers during the night hours over the weekend.
The coastal region of Kenya is also expected to experience rainfall during the period. Mombasa will transition from sunny intervals on Thursday and Friday to light showers from Saturday through Monday, with temperatures holding steady between 27°C and 29°C. Lamu stands out as the wettest coastal county, with light showers forecast across all five days including overnight periods. Other coastal counties are expected to experience similar weather conditions.
In the north-eastern region, Mandera will record the highest temperatures in the country, peaking at 37°C on Thursday before easing slightly to 34°C by Monday. Wajir and Garissa are forecast to remain largely dry on Thursday and Friday, with light rains expected to develop from Saturday. Marsabit is set to receive moderate rains on Monday morning. This region is expected to experience hot and dry conditions during the period.
The Rift Valley region is also expected to experience varied weather conditions. Nakuru, Laikipia, Baringo and Kajiado are expected to see light showers developing from Saturday or Sunday. Narok will remain largely dry across all five days, with only partly cloudy nights and no rainfall anticipated. Other counties in the region are expected to experience similar weather conditions.
Western Kenya counties, including Kisumu, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Bungoma and Migori, are forecast to stay dry through much of the week before afternoon light showers arrive from Sunday. Nyandarua will record some of the coolest minimum temperatures nationally, dropping to as low as 5°C on Thursday night. Turkana will be the driest county over the forecast period, with sunny intervals dominating throughout and no rainfall expected on any of the five days.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority's forecast indicates that temperatures will vary significantly across different regions. Turkana will reach as high as 38°C on Sunday and Monday, while Nyandarua will record some of the coolest minimum temperatures nationally. The authority's forecast is an important tool for planning and decision-making in various sectors, including agriculture, transportation, and emergency response.
Key points
- Light to moderate rainfall is expected across several counties in Kenya from October 1 to 5, 2026.
- Nairobi and Central Kenya are expected to experience varied weather conditions during the period.
- Turkana will be the driest county over the forecast period, with sunny intervals dominating throughout and no rainfall expected on any of the five days.
