The Kenya Meteorological Department has released its weekly weather forecast, predicting rainfall in several counties from September 29 to October 5. According to the forecast, rainfall is expected in parts of 32 counties, including Lamu, Kwale, Kilifi, Mombasa, and Tana River. The forecast also indicates that afternoon thunderstorms are likely in parts of western Kenya, including Bungoma, Kisumu, Kakamega, Kericho, and Siaya.
Daytime temperatures are expected to exceed 30°C in several counties, including Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo, Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Marsabit, and Turkana. On the other hand, night-time temperatures are expected to dip below 10°C in some highland areas, including Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Nyeri, Nakuru, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Narok, Taita Taveta, and Kajiado.
The forecast also indicates that morning showers are expected in a few areas, occasionally spreading to several parts of Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Tana River, and Lamu counties. Additionally, morning rains may occur in a few parts of Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Mandera, Nairobi, Taita Taveta, Nyandarua, Nakuru, Kiambu, Machakos, Murang'a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Meru, Nyeri, and Tharaka-Nithi Counties.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely to occur in a few parts of Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Kericho, Kisii, Kisumu, Migori, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Siaya, Elgeyo Marakwet, Trans Nzoia, and Vihiga Counties. Furthermore, afternoon showers may occur in a few parts of Embu, Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Mandera, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Meru, Mombasa, Murang'a, Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Tana River, and Tharaka-Nithi Counties.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has also issued an El Niño warning, placing the probability of a strong El Niño developing this year at 81%, with a 97% likelihood that its effects will extend into early 2027. Counties to be affected by El Niño include those in the 32 counties listed in the weather forecast.
A national risk assessment produced by the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) has identified specific threats in each affected region, including flash floods, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks, and damage to critical infrastructure. Residents in the affected counties are advised to take necessary precautions to mitigate the effects of the expected weather conditions.
The Kenya Meteorological Department's forecast is crucial in helping residents and stakeholders prepare for the expected weather conditions. By understanding the forecast, residents can take necessary precautions to ensure their safety and the safety of their property. The department will continue to monitor the weather conditions and provide updates as necessary.
Key points
- The Kenya Meteorological Department forecasts rainfall in 32 counties from September 29 to October 5.
- Afternoon thunderstorms are expected in parts of western Kenya, including Bungoma, Kisumu, Kakamega, Kericho, and Siaya.
- The probability of a strong El Niño developing this year is 81%, with a 97% likelihood that its effects will extend into early 2027.
