Kenya-Iran Trade Plunges 58% Amid US-Israel War Against Tehran

The value of trade between Kenya and Iran has significantly declined by 57.7 percent in the three months to June 2026. This drop is attributed to the ongoing US-Israel war against Tehran, which has disrupted commercial ties between the two countries. According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the value of goods exchanged between Kenya and Iran fell to Sh975.1 million in April-June 2026 from Sh2.304 billion in the same period last year.

The decline in trade is largely due to a significant drop in Kenyan exports to Iran. Exports suffered the biggest blow, plunging 75.2 percent to Sh357.6 million from Sh1.443 billion in the same period last year. On the other hand, imports from Iran fell by a slower 28.3 percent to Sh617.5 million from Sh860.8 million. This faster contraction in export earnings amid a slower fall in the import bill pushed Kenya into a Sh259.9 million trade deficit.

The trade deficit is a significant shift from the same period last year, when Kenya recorded a Sh582.5 million surplus. This reversal highlights the vulnerability of Kenyan exporters to geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East. The unresolved conflict has affected shipping routes, cargo insurance, payment channels, and the movement of goods, making it challenging for businesses trading with Iran.

The US-Israel conflict with Iran has derailed Kenya's plans to expand exports into Iran and use the country as a gateway to other markets in Central Asia. Kenya had been pursuing opportunities to expand exports of livestock products and ornamental flowers to Iran, in addition to rebuilding its tea trade, which was disrupted by an import embargo imposed before the war.

Despite the challenges, Iran's ambassador to Kenya, Ali Gholampour, expressed optimism about restoring trade relations. He mentioned that over 1,200 tonnes of Kenyan sheep meat had already been exported to Iran, and removing logistical obstacles could allow meat and ornamental flower exports to resume. Gholampour also highlighted the potential for Kenyan businesses to access markets in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan through Iran's rail, maritime, and air connections.

The tea trade between Kenya and Iran was also affected by the conflict. Tehran halted Kenyan tea imports in August 2025 after allegations that Kenyan exporter Cup of Joe had imported low-grade foreign tea, blended it, and re-exported it as premium Kenyan produce. The Tea Board of Kenya subsequently revoked Cup of Joe's licence and deregistered the company. However, Gholampour stated that the two countries were working to restore confidence and stabilise trade.

The joint committee established by Kenya and Iran to remove trade obstacles and restore confidence in Kenyan produce held its first meeting in Nairobi on August 13, 2025. The committee developed a roadmap and identified steps required to resolve the dispute. A second meeting took place in Tehran in November 2025, followed by further correspondence and exchanges of documents between the two sides. Progress depends on Kenya providing information requested by Tehran, and Gholampour expressed hope that the dispute could be resolved swiftly.

Key points

• Kenya's trade with Iran declined by 57.7% to Sh975.1 million in April-June 2026 due to the US-Israel war against Tehran.
• Kenyan exports to Iran plummeted 75.2% to Sh357.6 million, while imports from Iran fell 28.3% to Sh617.5 million.
• The trade disruption has derailed Kenya's plans to expand exports into Iran and use the country as a gateway to other markets in Central Asia.