Kenya has entered its October-December short rains season, with the Kenya Meteorological Service warning of wetter-than-normal conditions. The service released a staggered schedule for the onset of rainfall across different regions, with rains already commenced across 24 counties, including major parts of the Coast, Western Kenya, and the Rift Valley. Acting Director of Meteorological Services Edward Muriuki stated that precipitation will spread to the remaining regions over the coming weeks.
The Meteorological Department outlined a regional timeline for the October-December season, with ongoing rains in counties such as Nandi, Kakamega, and Kisumu. The coastal counties of Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu, Kilifi, and the Tana Delta are also experiencing rainfall. The department forecasts that northern and eastern counties, including Marsabit, Mandera, and Garissa, will receive rains in the first to second week of October.
The short rains season is expected to bring mixed prospects for the agricultural sector. Enhanced moisture levels will support land preparation, crop planting, pasture regeneration, and livestock water supply. However, meteorologists cautioned that heavy downpours present serious operational challenges, including soil waterlogging, increased crop disease risks, harvest disruptions, and transport bottlenecks along rural road networks.
Above-average temperatures are also projected nationwide throughout the season. The current weather pattern is driven by the co-occurrence of El Niño conditions and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Muriuki urged the public not to attribute the rainfall solely to El Niño, pointing out that multiple interacting climate systems dictate regional atmospheric patterns.
Authorities warned residents in low-lying areas, floodplain communities, and landslide-prone terrain to take precautionary measures against potential flash floods and severe soil erosion as the season progresses. The Meteorological Department advised farmers and residents to monitor localized advisories issued by county meteorological offices, noting that rainfall timing and intensity will vary significantly across different zones.
The department forecasts that wetter-than-normal conditions are expected across central, eastern, and coastal regions, as well as parts of the Rift Valley. In contrast, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo will likely see their rainy season end by early to mid-December, while other central, eastern, and western counties may experience continued rainfall into January.
The Kenya Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates to the public. Residents are advised to stay informed and take necessary precautions to mitigate the impacts of the short rains season. The service will work closely with county governments and other stakeholders to ensure that the public receives timely and accurate information.
Key points
- Kenya has officially entered its October-December short rains season, with wetter-than-normal conditions expected across different regions.
- The Meteorological Department has released a staggered schedule for the onset of rainfall across different regions, with rains already commenced across 24 counties.
- Authorities have warned residents in low-lying areas, floodplain communities, and landslide-prone terrain to take precautionary measures against potential flash floods and severe soil erosion.
