Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is set to face a crucial test of her authority as the parliament prepares to cast its final secret vote on a comprehensive electoral reform. The proposed law aims to promote political stability by ensuring that Italian elections produce clear winners, who will be empowered by a "majority bonus" of up to 17.5% of seats in each house of parliament.
The new electoral system, dubbed "Stabilicum" or "Melonellum," seeks to end Italy's chronic political instability and boost the chances of Meloni's right-wing coalition being re-elected against a united centre-left opposition. If approved, the law will scrap the current first-past-the-post system, which accounts for around a third of parliamentary seats, and shift to a proportional representation system.
The reform creates a "majority bonus," a bloc of parliamentary seats granted to the winning coalition before the election, provided it secures at least 42% of the vote. However, some lawmakers in Meloni's coalition are uneasy about the redesign, fearing it may backfire and pave the way for a centre-left opposition victory.
Despite concerns, analysts expect Meloni's lawmakers to vote in favour of the electoral reform, even if reluctantly, to avoid early parliamentary dissolution. According to Giovanni Orsina, director of the political science department at Luiss Guido Carli University, all indicators suggest the law will pass, but with 400 lawmakers, each with their own interests, it's hard to be certain.
The proposed law is Meloni's latest attempt to reform Italy's institutional framework, following a failed bid to reform the judicial system in a constitutional referendum earlier this year. The idea is to facilitate the swift establishment of a stable governing majority, without post-election manoeuvres or unstable and ideologically incoherent alliances.
However, the requirement for parties to agree on a joint prime ministerial candidate and political programme before the election may cause friction between coalition partners. Analysts warn that the rise of Matteo Salvini's far-right League party and Forza Italia may complicate Meloni's efforts to secure the necessary support for a majority bonus.
If no coalition achieves 42% of the vote, Italy may face renewed political turmoil, with seats distributed proportionally, warns Roberto D'Alimonte, an expert on Italian electoral systems. This could lead to a highly fragmented and polarised parliament, making it challenging to form a stable government.
Key points
- The proposed electoral reform aims to promote political stability in Italy by ensuring clear winners in elections.
- The law creates a "majority bonus" of up to 17.5% of seats for the winning coalition.
- The vote is seen as a crucial test of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's authority.
