The African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) are gearing up for the local government polls in South Africa, with experts predicting that the outcome could lead to an uneasy pact between the two parties. According to independent election analyst Michael Atkins, the significance of the polls will lie in the parties' conduct during coalition negotiations. Atkins emphasized the need to build a culture of respect across divides, prioritizing the needs of voters over short-term interests.
Public opinion polls show that the ANC's support has dropped below 30% in Johannesburg, with Atkins noting that this could lead to an overhang where the ANC retains more wards than the total proportional representation seat allocation. This gap could be as high as five seats, meaning the ANC would not have enough proportional representation councillors. Despite a decline in DA support in Cape Town, its provincial results in 2019 and 2024 were better than at the national level, indicating that the party's core local support remains intact.
Professor Sethulego Matebesi of the University of the Free State and head of the department of sociology, cited a MarkData poll that placed the DA at 35% and the ANC at 21.8% in Johannesburg. Matebesi noted that polls often struggle to model voter turnout in low-turnout local elections, making it uncertain whether the DA will secure an outright majority in Cape Town. He also highlighted that other parties, such as the Patriotic Alliance, could garner significant electoral support, decreasing the DA's support.
DA Johannesburg mayoral candidate Helen Zille has ruled out a possibility of an EFF and uMkhonto weSizwe Party coalition, making the ANC a potential partner. Matebesi noted that a combination of the DA and ANC would be more stable but politically costly for both parties. Alternatively, the DA could form a coalition with smaller parties, but this would depend on repairing the Zille-Mashaba relationship. A broad ANC-led alliance of MK, EFF, and ActionSA is arithmetically possible but would be challenging to hold together.
High crime levels on the Cape Flats and in townships have put the DA on the back foot, with the debate often driven by the party's plan to spend millions on building a 9km concrete barrier along the N2 highway. Matebesi noted that 45.3% of people in Cape Town blame the national government for gangsterism, while 25.3% blame the DA. The DA has been accused of prioritizing affluent suburbs, while its supporters argue that black residents receive better services where the party governs.
Dr Oscar van Heerden, a research associate and senior research fellow at the University of Johannesburg's Centre for African Diplomacy and Leadership, opposed the erection of the Cape Town wall as a means to fight crime. He argued that it would create prison-like territories in and around the city, failing to curb crime. Van Heerden also criticized the DA for maintaining the apartheid spatial morphology, having done little to ensure integration in housing and socio-economically.
Both parties have outlined their priorities for the financially-ailing Johannesburg, with Zille listing the fixing of finances, declaring war on corruption, and restoring law and order. The ANC has pledged to turn around municipal service delivery, investing at least 8% of municipal asset values into maintenance and renewal, and achieving clean or unqualified audits in 50% or more municipalities. The party also aims to redouble efforts to fight crime.
Key points
- Experts predict possible coalitions between ANC and DA
- DA and ANC support levels in Johannesburg
- High crime levels and service delivery are key issues
