The World Bank has forecast that Sub-Saharan Africa's inflation will increase to 5.5% in 2026, up from 3.7% in 2025. This rise is largely attributed to the surge in energy prices caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and intensifying geopolitical tensions. The World Bank's report highlights that the increase in global commodity prices following the conflict has significantly impacted consumer prices in over half of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Many African countries, which are predominantly importers of hydrocarbons, have raised fuel prices at the pump in recent months. Economies heavily dependent on importing basic products and with limited exchange rate flexibility have faced particularly strong inflationary pressures. The World Bank notes that if global commodity prices stabilize and geopolitical tensions ease, inflation may moderate in the medium term.
The World Bank also warns of climate-related risks, including the potential for an El Niño event to disrupt agricultural production and exacerbate food insecurity. According to global forecasts, the expected El Niño event this year could reach unprecedented intensity and amplify the effects of climate change.
Despite these risks, Sub-Saharan Africa's growth is expected to slightly accelerate, rising from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026. The World Bank has upgraded its growth forecasts for three-quarters of the countries in the region, including Angola, Ethiopia, and Nigeria. These revisions are largely driven by increased activity in oil-exporting countries and structural reforms aimed at improving the business climate.
The World Bank's report emphasizes that the surge in global commodity prices has had a significant impact on consumer prices in many Sub-Saharan African countries. The institution notes that the effects of the conflict in the Middle East have been particularly pronounced in countries with limited economic flexibility.
The inflation outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa is also influenced by domestic factors, including monetary and fiscal policy decisions. The World Bank suggests that more stringent policies could help mitigate inflationary pressures and stabilize the region's economies.
The region's economic growth is expected to be driven by a combination of factors, including increased activity in key sectors and ongoing structural reforms. However, the World Bank's report cautions that the outlook remains subject to significant uncertainty, with potential risks including climate-related shocks and global economic volatility.
Key points
- Sub-Saharan Africa's inflation is expected to reach 5.5% in 2026.
- Rising energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict are driving inflation.
- The region's growth is expected to accelerate to 4.3% in 2026.
