Somalia's political landscape is undergoing significant changes due to increased engagement from Middle Eastern powers. In June, Somaliland's president, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, highlighting the growing connections between the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. Israel's recognition of Somaliland in late 2025 marked a significant development in the region. This move allows Israel to establish a strategic partnership with Somaliland, which has been seeking international recognition since declaring independence in 1991.
The expansion of Middle Eastern engagement in the Horn of Africa is substantial, with Gulf states and Turkey committing an estimated $75 billion to projects across East Africa in recent years. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) accounts for approximately 60% of this total, with significant investments in Somaliland, Puntland, and Jubaland. Turkey has focused on building relationships with the federal government in Mogadishu. Other Middle Eastern countries, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, have also strengthened ties with Somalia as disputes over Ethiopia, Israel, and Red Sea security intensify.
The influx of Middle Eastern money, arms, and infrastructure is altering the balance of power among Somalia's competing political centers. These centers, often underpinned by clan coalitions, have varying capacities to raise revenue, provide security, and negotiate with external actors. Foreign support can significantly strengthen certain coalitions, shifting the balance of power in the region. Somalia's federal government, based in Mogadishu, holds sovereign powers, including control over airspace and international agreements, but regional authorities control ports, customs revenues, and security forces.
Somali governments have historically struggled to collect broad-based taxes, making customs posts and maritime gateways crucial for financing the state. The federal government collects domestic revenue equivalent to only about 3% of GDP, one of the lowest levels in Africa. Regional administrations, such as Puntland's Bosaso, Jubaland's Kismayo, and Somaliland's Berbera, are essential revenue generators for their respective governments. These centers are also critical for foreign engagement, as they offer strategically located territory, commercial access, and security cooperation.
Somali officials view foreign engagement as a negotiated exchange, rather than something imposed upon them. They actively solicit investment and negotiate terms with foreign governments, which provide finance, weapons, training, infrastructure, or diplomatic support. The balance of power is not equal, but Somali actors play an active role in shaping these relationships. Successful partnerships can supply resources that consolidate their authority, while also providing benefits to foreign governments.
The relationships between Somali regional administrations and Middle Eastern powers are complex and multifaceted. The UAE has partnered with Puntland in its campaign against IS-Somalia, while Somaliland has received significant diplomatic and political backing from both the UAE and Israel. These partnerships can have significant consequences, such as the recent confrontations between Jubaland and Mogadishu. In late 2024, the federal government challenged Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe's re-election, deploying troops toward Kismayo.
The evolving dynamics in Somalia have significant implications for the region. Western governments initially saw Middle Eastern engagement as an advantage, providing additional capital, security resources, and political credibility. However, the changing political terrain, with practical authority distributed among competing centers, requires a nuanced understanding of the complex relationships at play. As Somalia navigates these challenges, its regional administrations will continue to play a crucial role in shaping the country's future.
Key points
- The UAE has invested approximately $75 billion in East Africa, with significant projects in Somaliland, Puntland, and Jubaland.
- Israel's recognition of Somaliland in late 2025 marked a significant development in the region.
- Somalia's federal government collects domestic revenue equivalent to only about 3% of GDP, making customs posts and maritime gateways crucial for financing the state.
