The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has released its seasonal climate outlook for Mauritius and Rodrigues, predicting an unusually hot and dry summer for 2026-2027. Temperatures on the west coast of Mauritius are expected to reach up to 36 °C. The MMS forecasts that overall rainfall in Mauritius will be below average, totaling around 1,100 mm, or approximately 80% of the usual seasonal mean. In contrast, Rodrigues is projected to receive slightly above-average rainfall.
The severe heat is expected to peak between December 2026 and March 2027, with high temperatures, elevated humidity levels, and light winds likely to make atmospheric conditions uncomfortable. Vulnerable individuals are expected to be particularly affected. The MMS has issued specific warnings regarding the risk of heatwaves, citing climate change and an ongoing El Niño event as key factors contributing to the potential for these extreme temperature conditions.
Despite the overall summer rainfall deficit, the MMS warned that rainfall events will not necessarily be less severe. The first summer rains are expected during the final week of November 2026. The forecast highlights a high risk of short-duration torrential rains, with particularly heavy downpours capable of triggering localized flooding alongside violent thunderstorms.
The regional cyclone season officially began on 1 November and will run until 15 May. Across the South-West Indian Ocean basin, weather services project between five and seven storms to form over the period. The region lying to the west of Diego Garcia is identified as particularly favorable for tropical system formation.
MMS officials clarified that the formation of multiple storms within the basin does not automatically mean Mauritius or Rodrigues will experience direct impacts. However, systems passing near the islands can still affect coastal areas by generating heavy swells and storm surges. The MMS also cautioned against the possibility of rapid cyclone intensification, categorizing it among the extreme weather events requiring close monitoring.
The MMS's forecast is based on current climate conditions, including the ongoing El Niño event. Climate change is also believed to be playing a role in the predicted extreme weather conditions. As a result, the MMS is urging residents to take necessary precautions to prepare for the potential impacts of the summer weather.
The Mauritian government and emergency services are likely to be on high alert during the summer months, given the predicted extreme weather conditions. Residents and visitors are advised to stay informed about the latest weather forecasts and warnings, and to take necessary precautions to ensure their safety.
Key points
- The summer temperatures in Mauritius could reach up to 36 °C on the west coast.
- The MMS forecasts that overall rainfall in Mauritius will fall below average this summer.
- The regional cyclone season is expected to see between five and seven storms form over the period.
