Heavy fighting broke out on multiple fronts between Ethiopian forces and rebel groups on Friday, with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) seizing local airports and launching attacks into neighboring states. The conflict has raised fears in Tigray of a return to the devastating blockade the northern region experienced during the last civil war. The TPLF said they were once again in a "full-blown war" with the federal government.
The telecoms disruption has caused near-total disruption to phone networks and the internet in Tigray, prompting Tigrayans to rush to buy alternative sim cards. Many are terrified of a repeat of the blockade imposed during the civil war in 2020-2022, which resulted in an estimated death toll of more than 600,000 people. The blockade saw electricity, banking, and almost all aid cut off.
A humanitarian source in Afar reported "heavy fighting overnight" around the town of Abala, including drone strikes, as federal forces pushed the rebels from entering the town. The source warned that hundreds of thousands of civilians could be displaced. Conflict monitor ACLED also reported "heavy fighting" in western Tigray at May Gaba and Tselimo.
The Ethiopian army has reported killing more than 700 TPLF fighters in Amhara, but has given no numbers for army or civilian casualties. Clashes were also reported in North Wollo Zone of Amhara, including around the UNESCO World Heritage sites in Lalibela. The United Nations chief, Antonio Guterres, raised the alarm on Friday, expressing concern over reports of the use of drones and incidents of harm to civilians.
The TPLF has forged an alliance with six other armed groups around the country in a bid to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. An eighth group, the Sidama Liberation Front, said it had joined the alliance on Friday. The TPLF appears to be repeating its strategy from the last war of pushing south through Amhara towards the capital, Addis Ababa.
The conflict could draw in neighboring Eritrea on the side of the rebels, as it fears landlocked Ethiopia has been planning to invade and seize a direct access to the Red Sea. Clionadh Raleigh, head of ACLED, said she could not see any "brakes in the system that prevent it from escalating further." The US embassy sided with Ethiopia's government this week, expressing disappointment with the TPLF offensive.
In Tigray, prices for basic goods have spiked as locals rush to stock up on supplies, with many fearing a repeat of the blockade. UN rights chief Volker Turk warned that the internet and telecommunications interruptions were increasing the risks to Ethiopians posed by the conflict. The Pretoria Peace Agreement of 2022 maintained an uneasy calm until last year but was never fully implemented, with around one million people still displaced.
Key points
- The conflict in Ethiopia has resulted in heavy fighting, telecoms disruption, and fears of a return to the devastating blockade of Tigray.
- The TPLF has forged an alliance with other armed groups to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
- The conflict could draw in neighboring Eritrea and escalate further, with many fearing a repeat of the devastating civil war.
