Heavy fighting has erupted in Ethiopia's Afar region as government forces clash with Tigray rebels. A humanitarian source reported overnight battles, with federal forces repelling the rebels from entering the town of Abala. The source added that the army used a drone in the fighting. The conflict has led to concerns of a repeat of the telecoms blackout and supplies blockade imposed on Tigray during the last civil war.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) launched attacks into the neighbouring states of Afar and Amhara, seizing local airports. The rebels say they are in a "full-blown war" with the federal government. Locals fear a humanitarian crisis similar to the 2020-2022 civil war, which killed an estimated 600,000 people. Online monitor Netblocks reported an "internet disruption in northern Ethiopia corresponding to reports of a telecoms blackout in Tigray".
Heavy clashes occurred in North Wollo Zone of Amhara, including around the UNESCO World Heritage sites in Lalibela. The sites are home to Ethiopia's famed rock churches. Analysts say the TPLF appears to be repeating its strategy from the last war, pushing south through Amhara towards the capital, Addis Ababa. The offensive in Afar is likely aimed at cutting off supplies from Djibouti, which provides almost all of Ethiopia's international trade cargo.
The TPLF has forged an alliance with six other armed groups around the country in a bid to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The alliance is likely trying to seize settlements alongside key infrastructure routes to undermine the federal government's ability to supply. Edward Bach of consultancy firm Verisk Maplecroft said the government has a significant military advantage, with a large arsenal of drones and an army numbering some 500,000.
The government has the support of external actors, notably the United Arab Emirates. The renewed fighting comes at an awkward moment for the United States, which only this month lifted sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea related to atrocities committed during the last civil war. The US embassy sided with Ethiopia's government, expressing disappointment at the TPLF's large-scale offensive.
The conflict could also draw in neighbouring Eritrea, which fears landlocked Ethiopia is planning to invade it to gain access to the Red Sea. Eritrea has a history of involvement in the conflict, and its role in the current fighting is uncertain. The international community is watching the situation closely, with concerns of a wider regional conflict.
The situation on the ground remains volatile, with reports of ongoing fighting and internet disruptions. The humanitarian situation is also deteriorating, with concerns of a repeat of the devastating humanitarian crisis of the last civil war. The international community is calling for restraint and a negotiated solution to the conflict.
Key points
- The conflict has led to concerns of a humanitarian crisis similar to the 2020-2022 civil war.
- The TPLF has forged an alliance with six other armed groups to overthrow the government.
- The US embassy has sided with Ethiopia's government, expressing disappointment at the TPLF's large-scale offensive.
