A leading infectious disease expert at Imperial College London has warned that the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus could pose a high risk as a source of a future pandemic. Professor Wendy Barclay, Regius Professor of Infectious Disease at Imperial, stated that viruses already circulating in nature remained the most likely source of the next pandemic, with H5N1 requiring particular attention due to its spread across species. The virus has re-emerged and spread across the world since 2020, infecting wild birds, farm poultry, and multiple species of wild and domesticated mammals.
The rapid spread of H5N1 has resulted in the culling of over 400 million chickens in the past four years, as the virus has crossed from wild birds into poultry. Additionally, the virus has been detected in dairy cattle in the United States, where it continues to circulate, and in mink farms in Utah, raising concerns over the risks to humans. Professor Barclay emphasized that the international scientific community should use the current period to prepare vaccines, drugs, and diagnostic tools rather than wait for a pandemic to emerge.
Researchers at Imperial are monitoring how H5N1 is evolving in new host species and assessing the potential consequences for humans. Scientists are also exploring ways to make chickens resistant to incursions by H5N1 through genetic engineering or editing. This comes as experts examine emerging biological threats, global biosecurity, and the implications of rapid advances in artificial intelligence.
The potential biosecurity implications of advances in AI and synthetic biology were also discussed during the online Biosecurity Media Briefing. Professor Tom Ellis, Professor of Synthetic Genome Engineering at Imperial, noted that synthetic biology is advancing rapidly, with DNA becoming increasingly accessible to engineer and synthesize. AI is being incorporated into engineering biology, including through automated laboratories capable of linking AI systems with biological experiments.
However, Professor Ellis cautioned against exaggerated perceptions of what AI can currently achieve, stating that AI-generated biological designs still have substantial failure rates and require extensive laboratory testing. He called for responsible use of AI in engineering biology, including surveillance and regulation of synthetic DNA orders to reduce the possibility of misuse.
The experts also emphasized the importance of preparedness and stronger surveillance systems to detect biological threats early. Professor Azra Ghani, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial, highlighted the need for rapid development of diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines. The international community has invested heavily in accelerating the development of medical countermeasures, including through the 100-day mission aimed at shortening the time required to respond to emerging pandemic threats.
Wastewater surveillance was also identified as an important tool for detecting biological threats early. Professor Leon Barron, Professor of Analytical and Environmental Sciences at Imperial, noted that wastewater monitoring can provide near-real-time information about pathogens circulating within communities. The briefing was moderated by Samantha Ray, Media Officer for Medicine at Imperial College London, and called for greater cooperation between scientists, public health authorities, and other sectors to strengthen the ability to detect and respond to emerging biological threats.
Key points
- H5N1 has spread across species, infecting wild birds, farm poultry, and multiple species of wild and domesticated mammals.
- The virus has resulted in the culling of over 400 million chickens in the past four years.
- Experts emphasize the need for preparedness, stronger surveillance systems, and rapid development of diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines.
