The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has forecast a decline in global grain trade for the 2026-2027 agricultural season. According to the FAO, the global grain trade is expected to decline by 3.5% by the end of the season. This represents a decrease of 18.3 million tonnes from the previous season. The forecast for world trade in cereals in 2026/27 stands at 505.8 million tonnes.
The decline in global grain trade is attributed to a decrease in exports of wheat and corn. The forecast for global wheat trade is now 195.4 million tonnes, down from the 197.2 million expected in September. This represents a downward revision of 1.8 million tonnes. The decline in wheat exports is expected to contribute to the overall decline in global grain trade.
The FAO also forecasts a decline in international rice trade in 2026. According to the organization, international rice trade is projected to decline by 2.2% in 2026. However, the FAO expects rice trade to grow by 1.7% in 2027. The forecast for rice trade in 2027 stands at 61.2 million tonnes. This figure is in line with the September forecast.
The decline in global grain trade has implications for food security and prices. A decrease in grain trade can lead to higher prices and reduced availability of staple foods. The FAO's forecast is based on data from various sources, including national statistical agencies and market analysts. The organization will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as necessary.
The FAO's forecast for global grain trade is closely watched by governments, traders, and other stakeholders. The organization's data and analysis provide valuable insights into market trends and help inform decision-making. The FAO's forecast is also used by governments to inform their agricultural policies and trade agreements.
The global grain trade is an important component of the global food system. Grain trade helps to ensure that countries have access to the food they need to feed their populations. The decline in global grain trade forecast by the FAO has implications for countries that rely heavily on imports to meet their food needs.
The FAO's forecast for global grain trade is a reminder of the complex and interconnected nature of the global food system. The organization's data and analysis highlight the need for continued monitoring and analysis of market trends. The FAO will continue to provide updates on the global grain trade and other aspects of the food system.
Key points
- Global grain trade is projected to decline by 3.5% in the 2026-2027 season.
- The decline in global grain trade is attributed to a decrease in exports of wheat and corn.
- International rice trade is projected to decline by 2.2% in 2026 before growing by 1.7% in 2027.
