The Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) has warned that an intensifying El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean could significantly influence Ghana's weather patterns into the first half of 2027. This could lead to elevated temperatures, extended dry spells, and increased atmospheric dust concentrations in several parts of the country. According to GMet, observations from its monitoring systems and international climate monitoring institutions suggest that the phenomenon is becoming increasingly pronounced.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climatic phenomenon characterised by abnormal warming of surface waters across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This has far-reaching consequences for temperature and precipitation patterns in different parts of the world, including West Africa. GMet has indicated that the developing climate phenomenon could produce an unusually hot, dry, and dusty dry season beginning in late November 2026.
The Agency anticipates that the El Niño event will reach its strongest intensity between November 2026 and January 2027 before gradually losing strength during the first six months of 2027. GMet cited Ghana's experiences during previous El Niño episodes, including the intense occurrences of 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16, as evidence of the country's susceptibility to fluctuations in rainfall patterns.
Changes in precipitation and temperature could have considerable implications for agricultural production, freshwater availability, hydroelectricity generation, and public health in Ghana. The Agency anticipates below-average rainfall across much of Ghana, although certain geographical locations are projected to experience precipitation levels exceeding their usual seasonal averages.
Areas identified as potentially receiving above-normal rainfall include inland communities within the Greater Accra and Central regions, southwestern portions of the Volta and Eastern regions, selected areas of the Bono and Savannah regions, as well as northwestern sections of the Upper West Region. GMet has also projected higher-than-average temperatures across most parts of the country.
For the dry season, which is expected to extend from late November 2026 through March 2027, the Agency anticipates increasingly arid and dusty atmospheric conditions across numerous locations. This could potentially heighten the incidence of bushfires, water scarcity, and adverse conditions for agricultural crops and livestock.
The Ghana Meteorological Agency's warning highlights the need for preparedness and mitigation measures to minimize the impacts of the impending El Niño event on the country's critical economic and social sectors. Key sectors that could be affected include agriculture, water resources, and public health.
Key points
- The El Niño event is expected to reach its strongest intensity between November 2026 and January 2027.
- Ghana is susceptible to fluctuations in rainfall patterns and their consequences for critical economic and social sectors.
- The Agency anticipates below-average rainfall across much of Ghana, with certain areas projected to experience above-normal rainfall.
