A very strong El Niño event is building in the Pacific, and Ghana is expected to feel its impacts in stages. The Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) has published a 31-page advisory outlining the potential effects on the country's heat, food, health, water, and power. According to GMet, there is a 96% chance that this El Niño event will reach "very strong" intensity by November-January. The event is expected to peak between now and January and weaken through the first half of 2027.
El Niño is a natural cycle in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that affects West Africa. When the ocean warms, it shifts thunderstorms, winds, and rainfall across the tropics. Ghana has experienced four very strong El Niño events since 1980, with uneven impacts. The past events have shown that the impacts arrive together, straining food crops, food prices, hydropower, and public health at the same time. GMet notes that the strength of an event does not necessarily match the strength of its impacts.
Ghana's rainfall is governed by the tropical Atlantic as much as by the Pacific. The Atlantic's influence will play a significant role in determining the country's rainfall in 2027. El Niño tends to warm the tropical North Atlantic a few months after it peaks, which can pull the rain belt northwards, favouring the Sahel over the coast. The 2027 rainy season in Ghana could be disappointing or experience overflow, according to GMet.
The next 12 months will be crucial for Ghana as it faces various climate-related risks. GMet's advisory sets out what to expect, period by period, from now until the Volta basin's inflow season ends in October 2027. The dry season, which starts in late November, is expected to be hotter and drier, with below-normal rain across much of Ghana and warmer-than-average temperatures. Localised heavy downpours remain possible in the south, and drying vegetation raises the risk of bushfires, water stress, and dust.
The period between February and April 2027 is expected to be the hottest stretch of the year in northern Ghana. Tropical temperatures tend to peak during this time, and heat stress is expected to be a significant concern, especially in the north. GMet's advisory highlights the need for preparedness and mitigation measures to address the potential impacts of the El Niño event.
Past El Niño events have had significant impacts on Ghana's power sector. The 1998 power crisis, for example, was caused by reduced rainfall and inflows into Lake Volta, which contributed to widespread rationing. In 2015, the lake fell below its minimum operating level, reflecting poor inflows in earlier years. The 2028 power test, as highlighted by GMet, will be a critical period for Ghana's hydropower generation.
Ghana's experience with El Niño events highlights the need for preparedness and mitigation measures. The country's meteorological agency, GMet, is working to provide probabilistic assessments of climate risk to help stakeholders make informed decisions. By understanding the potential impacts of the El Niño event, Ghana can take steps to minimize its effects on the country's food, health, water, and power sectors.
Key points
- - A very strong El Niño event is expected to impact Ghana from 2026 to 2028. - The event is expected to peak between now and January and weaken through the first half of 2027. - Ghana's power sector is likely to face challenges in 2028 due to the El Niño event.
