Germans began voting on September 26, 2026, in two significant state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. These elections are crucial for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has been facing challenges, including low approval ratings and opposition from far-right and far-left parties. Merz, 70, has been in power for 16 months and has struggled to implement economic and social welfare reforms.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has been gaining popularity, and its success in a recent state election in Saxony-Anhalt has raised concerns about Merz's leadership. The AfD is expected to make gains in the upcoming elections, although it may not be close to achieving an absolute majority. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD is polling at 36 percent, while the Social Democratic Party (SPD) of popular state premier Manuela Schwesig is at 37 percent.
In Berlin, the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is running a close race against the far-left Die Linke party. Die Linke promises to address the dire housing crisis and is popular among young people. A CDU defeat in either state would be a significant blow to Merz, who has vowed to reboot the economy, rebuild the military, and reduce irregular immigration.
Chancellor Merz has received some support from CDU powerbrokers, with eight state premiers declaring that Germany needs stability now more than ever. However, they refrained from issuing a personal endorsement for Merz. The CDU faces different challenges in each region, including a neck-and-neck race against Die Linke in Berlin and a tough battle against the AfD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
The elections come at a time when Merz's approval ratings are at an all-time low, hovering just above 10 percent. Some commentators attribute his struggles to external factors, including the Ukraine and Middle East wars, which have driven up energy prices and fueled a cost-of-living crisis. The rise of China has also turned a long-time German export market into a fierce industrial competitor.
Despite the challenges, some analysts believe that Merz will weather the current political storm and serve out his term until 2029. Berenberg bank chief economist Holger Schmieding noted that although parts of the right-wing AfD are close to US President Donald Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin, voters tend to blame the ruling coalition led by Merz for their economic woes.
The outcome of the elections will have significant implications for Merz's leadership and the stability of the federal government. A strong showing by the AfD or Die Linke could lead to a shift in the balance of power and potentially undermine Merz's ability to implement his agenda. The results will be closely watched by investors, policymakers, and citizens alike.
Key points
- The elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania could have significant implications for Chancellor Friedrich Merz's leadership and the stability of the federal government.
- The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is expected to make gains in the elections, which could further erode Merz's support.
- A CDU defeat in either state would be a significant blow to Merz, who has been facing challenges, including low approval ratings and opposition from far-right and far-left parties.
