A recent outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) in Namibia could have severe economic consequences, according to a report by financial services firm Simonis Storm. The outbreak is estimated to result in approximately 12,000 job losses across 2026 and 2027. Additionally, it may add up to 0.29 percentage points to inflation in the fourth quarter of 2026. The report highlights the potential impact on the country's economy, particularly in rural areas and towns dependent on abattoir activity.
The FMD outbreak is expected to reduce Namibia's 2026 real GDP growth to about 2.0%, down from a pre-outbreak forecast of 2.5%. Simonis Storm estimates that the livestock shock will reduce economic growth by about 0.45 percentage points in 2026, while fourth-quarter GDP could contract by about 0.7% year-on-year. The firm also predicts that the outbreak could cost the government about N$1.80 billion in 2026 and 2027, with the net trade drag potentially reaching N$1.43 billion in 2027.
Despite the economic impact, Simonis Storm believes that the national economy could absorb the shock, although the consequences would be severe for rural communities, farm families, and farm workers. The firm notes that Namibia has recently experienced a larger livestock shock, with livestock output falling by more than a fifth in 2025, yet GDP still grew by about 1.7%. Its base-case assumption of an 8% livestock loss is roughly one-third of the 2025 decline.
The current outbreak involves one confirmed farm, and a nationwide livestock standstill was imposed on the same day. Simonis Storm reports that stamping out the disease remains possible and that the disease profile is consistent with recovery in about six months. A control area along the Orange River has been gazetted since March. The firm warns, however, that the risks are significant if the disease spreads further or if Namibia vaccinates and retains animals, which could roughly triple the recovery timeline.
Namibia's exposure to infected areas, game-crossing fences, and drought also raises the cost of holding animals that cannot be sold, according to the analysis. The firm has considered three scenarios, which point to a collapse in cattle marketed during October. November is expected to be decisive, with the contained scenario implying cattle marketings about 15% below normal as abattoirs outside the //Kharas region restart.
Simonis Storm will update its scenario assessments with each livestock marketing release, alongside developments in veterinary restrictions, tracing results, the choice between stamping out and vaccination, and the response of importing countries. The firm notes that a faster narrowing of the livestock ban and acceptance of regionalisation by importing countries could allow 2026 growth to remain close to 2.3%.
The economic impact of the FMD outbreak highlights the need for swift and effective measures to contain the disease. The Namibian government, along with stakeholders, will need to work together to mitigate the effects of the outbreak and prevent further spread of the disease. Key factors to watch include the progression of the outbreak, the response of importing countries, and the effectiveness of control measures implemented.
Key points
- The FMD outbreak may result in 12,000 job losses and add 0.29% to inflation.
- The outbreak could reduce Namibia's 2026 real GDP growth to about 2.0%.
- The disease profile is consistent with recovery in about six months, but risks are significant if the disease spreads further.
