Clashes have resumed in northern Ethiopia between the federal government and rebel authorities in the Tigray region, following months of tension. The fighting, which began on September 23, involves the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal army in Tigray and neighboring regions of Amhara and Afar.
According to Patrick Ferras, president of the African Strategies association and an Ethiopia specialist, the conflict was inevitable. He notes that fighting never truly ceased, particularly in the Amhara region, and residual clashes continued in Tigray. The context has been set by recent legislative elections and their results, which determined the composition of Ethiopia's national assembly.
The elections, held on June 1, saw the Prosperity Party win, paving the way for Abiy Ahmed to be reconfirmed as prime minister on October 5. The formation of a new government will follow, with the ceremony starting on the same day. However, opposition parties and military groups, largely excluded from the electoral process, will have no representation in the national assembly.
Ferras highlights weaknesses in the Pretoria agreement, signed in 2022 between the TPLF and the federal government, which have contributed to the current crisis. The agreement failed to address key issues, including the status of the Welkait territory, which has been disputed between Tigray and Amhara regions. This omission has fueled tensions and created an unstable situation.
A coalition of seven militias, formed to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has been described as unnatural by Ferras. The alliance brings together groups that have previously clashed, including Tigréens, Oromos, and Amharas. However, their differences and lack of cohesion make it unlikely they will succeed in taking power.
The current conflict differs from the 2020-2022 conflict between the federal government and the TPLF. The TPLF has been weakened militarily, politically, and economically, and its alliance with other groups is seen as unstable. The Eritrean government, which previously supported the TPLF, has changed its stance, further weakening the TPLF's position.
The TPLF's goals are not independence or autonomy but rather to regain influence within Ethiopia's regional states. However, given their weakened state, it is unlikely they will regain their previous level of power. The advantage currently lies with the federal defense forces, which are better organized and equipped to face the TPLF and its allies.
Key points
- The conflict in northern Ethiopia has resumed between the federal government and the TPLF.
- The Pretoria agreement failed to address key issues, contributing to the current crisis.
- The TPLF seeks to regain influence within Ethiopia's regional states, but its chances of success are uncertain.