The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has urged the Ethiopian government and development partners to shift from emergency assistance to anticipatory action against recurring climate disasters. According to Abebe Haile-Gabriel, Assistant Director-General and Regional Representative for Africa at the FAO, Ethiopia's repeated exposure to climate shocks necessitates a proactive approach to protect livelihoods before crises escalate into full-scale emergencies.
Abebe Haile-Gabriel emphasized that repeatedly responding to climate disasters after livestock perish, crops fail, and households lose their livelihoods offers no sustainable solution to the country's long-standing climate vulnerability. He stated that Ethiopia has become accustomed to recurring drought risks, with droughts causing people to suffer, livestock to be lost, and then assistance to be provided. However, this approach is not a long-term solution.
The FAO promotes an approach that enables authorities to anticipate climate threats and implement protective interventions based on scientific forecasts. Under this model, early warning data identifies high-risk communities and evaluates shock severity to deploy targeted support before households lose productive assets. Such proactive interventions include pre-positioning livestock feed, strengthening veterinary services, enhancing water access, distributing drought-resistant seeds, and providing timely aid to vulnerable farming and pastoralist households.
The call comes as Ethiopia faces climate concerns linked to the strengthening El Niño phenomenon and the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which heavily influence rainfall patterns across the Greater Horn of Africa. While drought remains a central priority, the immediate outlook for the October–December rainy season raises significant concerns over excessive rainfall, flash floods, and riverine flooding across several regions.
According to the October El Niño Preparedness and Response Situation Update issued by the IMPAACT programme, Ethiopia has activated anticipatory action in four districts across the Somali and Oromia regions due to high probabilities of above-normal rainfall. The Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC) estimates that approximately 9.3 million people reside in districts identified for early intervention.
Over 163 districts are classified as vulnerable to climate hazards, with 114 triggered for anticipatory action. Among these, 84 woredas across Afar, Amhara, northern Somali, and Tigray fall under Priority Levels 1 and 2. Regional projections indicate a particularly high probability of enhanced rainfall across southern and southeastern Ethiopia. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) forecasts a 90 percent probability of above-normal rainfall in southern Ethiopia and central-southern Somalia.
Current preparedness measures build on initiatives started in September, focusing on early warning dissemination, community preparedness messaging, and the pre-positioning of essential supplies. Gode and Adadle districts in the Shebelle Zone of the Somali Region have received focused attention due to high flood exposure. The FAO's call for anticipatory action aims to mitigate the impact of climate disasters and protect the livelihoods of millions of Ethiopians.
Key points
- The FAO urges Ethiopia to invest in early warning systems and anticipatory action to mitigate the impact of recurring climate disasters.
- Ethiopia faces climate concerns linked to the strengthening El Niño phenomenon and the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
- Approximately 9.3 million people reside in districts identified for early intervention.
