Nigerian presidential candidate Peter Obi recently stated that over 140 million Nigerians live in poverty and severe hardship. He made this claim during his Independence Day address, highlighting the country's significant challenges. According to Obi, Nigeria also has over 18 million out-of-school children, with over 40 million Nigerians expected to face extreme hunger by 2026. Furthermore, he cited youth unemployment and underemployment affecting over 35 million people.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) conducted a multidimensional poverty survey between November 2021 and February 2022, finding that 63% of Nigerians, or approximately 133 million people, were multidimensionally poor. This survey measured deprivations in areas such as education, healthcare, and sanitation. However, the figure is not a 2026 estimate, and more recent poverty estimates are higher. The World Bank's April 2026 Nigeria Development Update estimated that 63% of Nigerians were living below the national poverty line in 2025, equivalent to around 140 million people.
Recent monetary-poverty estimates from the World Bank and PwC support the claim that over 140 million Nigerians could be living below a poverty line. The World Bank's estimate, based on the 2018/19 and 2022/23 Nigeria Living Standards Surveys, put the number at around 140 million people in 2025. PwC's 2026 West Africa Economic Outlook projected Nigeria's poverty rate at 62% in 2026, equivalent to approximately 141 million people. However, these figures do not establish that 140 million Nigerians are living in multidimensional, extreme, or "severe hardship" conditions.
Food insecurity is another significant challenge in Nigeria. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that nearly 35 million Nigerians are likely to face acute food insecurity during the 2026 lean season, with 5.8 million of them in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe (BAY) states. The UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and the World Food Programme also projected similar numbers. While Obi's warning about a major hunger crisis is supported by current humanitarian projections, his exact figure of 40 million people facing extreme hunger is not substantiated.
Obi's claim about out-of-school children is supported by UNICEF's 2024 assessment, which reported that 10.2 million children of primary-school age and 8.1 million children of junior-secondary-school age were out of school, totaling approximately 18.3 million. UNICEF described the situation as an education crisis. However, these figures cover specific school-age groups and should not be presented as a current 2026 count of all Nigerian children outside school.
The issue of youth unemployment and underemployment is also significant, with ActionAid Nigeria's 2025 State of the Nigerian Youth report stating that nearly 80 million young people, representing 53% of Nigeria's youth population, were unemployed. However, this figure is based on ActionAid's cited sources and presentation, and should not be automatically treated as an official National Bureau of Statistics unemployment figure.
Obi also cited drug abuse and low life expectancy as major challenges. The National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) reported that an estimated 14.4% of Nigerians aged 15 to 64, or about 14.3 million people, used at least one psychoactive substance in the previous year, supporting Obi's 14% figure. Additionally, the World Bank's country data lists Nigeria's life expectancy at birth at 54 years in 2023, while the World Health Organisation's latest country data puts Nigeria's life expectancy at birth at 63.4 years in 2021.
Key points
- There is substantial evidence that Nigeria is experiencing widespread poverty, food insecurity, and other social challenges.
- Recent monetary-poverty estimates put the number of Nigerians living below a poverty line at around or above 140 million.
- Obi's claims are partly true, but require qualifications and are based on different methodologies and reference years.
