The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has forecast a near-100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027. This weather phenomenon is triggered by a warming of surface sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific beyond certain thresholds. According to the WMO, El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. The organization has noted that thirteen national and international centres, from Washington to Tokyo to London to Pune, have built a consensus on this forecast.
El Niño's impact on South Africa and the wider region typically comes in the form of drought during the summer months. However, recent rains in some areas, such as Gauteng, have resulted in above-average rainfall, with 51.5mm of rain recorded in September, roughly twice the average for the month. Despite this, it appears that this could be a temporary respite before the drought sets in. The WMO has warned that the current El Niño event has the potential to be one of the strongest since at least 1950.
Record-high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are a key indicator of El Niño's strength. The WMO has forecast that these temperatures will increase to record levels during October-November-December 2026. Specifically, the seasonal average Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is forecast to reach approximately +3.7°C, peaking around December. This is the highest since observations began and is stronger than the previous record of +2.6°C in November 2015-January 2016.
The Famine Early Warnings Systems Network (Fews Net) has warned that southern Africa is high on its radar screen due to the impending El Niño event. The organization has noted that food assistance needs are expected to peak from November 2027 through March 2028 in countries such as Angola, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. This is due to forecasts of a late start to the wet season, below-average rainfall, prolonged dry spells, and above-average temperatures.
South Africa is currently well-equipped to deal with the potential impacts of El Niño, with abundant maize stocks and low food inflation. The country's high-tech commercial farming sector has contributed to these positive trends. Additionally, recent rains have added to already excellent soil moisture and dam levels following the rains of El Niño's opposite phase, La Niña. However, the country still faces constraints in dealing with a severe El Niño event.
The South African government faces challenges in responding to a potential crisis, including limited funds to deploy and a cash-strapped Treasury. The country's decaying metros are also ill-equipped to cope with an influx of people from rural areas who may be affected by the drought. Subsistence farmers in the former homelands are generally ill-equipped to deal with a dearth of rain, which could lead to a further swelling of the urban population.
The WMO's forecast serves as a warning for countries in southern Africa to prepare for the worst. While there is still a chance that the region may dodge the impacts of El Niño, the odds appear heavily stacked in favour of an impending drought. As such, it is essential for governments and other stakeholders to take proactive measures to mitigate the potential effects of this extreme weather event.
Key points
- El Niño is expected to persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since 1950.
- Record-high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are a key indicator of El Niño's strength.
- Southern Africa is expected to be severely impacted by El Niño, with food assistance needs peaking from November 2027 through March 2028.
