Egyptian military expert Samir Ragheb has warned of the escalating conflict in Bab El-Mandeb, a strategic waterway in the Red Sea. In an interview with Al-Ahram Hebdo, Ragheb highlighted the complexity of the Houthi threat, which he believes is linked to Iran's military and strategic interests in the region. The Houthis have been involved in a decade-long conflict in Yemen, and their recent advances on the western coast have raised concerns about the security of the Red Sea.
Ragheb noted that the Houthis' control of strategic islands and coastal areas has allowed them to exert influence over the Bab El-Mandeb strait, a vital shipping lane. He warned that the Houthis' actions are not just a local issue, but have regional implications, with Iran seeking to expand its influence in the area. The conflict in Yemen is dual, Ragheb said, involving both a civil war for power and control, and a proxy war for Iran.
The recent fall of Mokha and the Houthis' capture of the Kahboub mountains have significant implications for the military landscape in Yemen. Ragheb argued that these developments allow the Houthis to tighten their grip on the city of Taëz and threaten the security of Aden. He also highlighted the lack of a unified national army in Yemen, which has hindered efforts to counter the Houthi threat.
Saudi Arabia is facing a dilemma in protecting its territory and the Red Sea, Ragheb said. Despite providing military support to Yemen, Riyadh has struggled to counter the Houthi threat, which has been fueled by Iranian support. Ragheb argued that a military solution to the conflict requires a unified national army in Yemen, as well as a more effective strategy to counter Iranian influence.
Ragheb also warned that Iran is seeking to replicate its model of "militarization of the straits" in the Red Sea, using the Houthis as a proxy. He argued that Tehran's actions are designed to create instability and disrupt international navigation and commerce. The international community has failed to effectively counter Iranian influence in Yemen, Ragheb said.
The escalation of the conflict in Bab El-Mandeb has significant implications for regional security, Ragheb warned. He argued that the conflict could have far-reaching consequences, including the disruption of international trade and the destabilization of the region. Ragheb called for a more effective international response to the crisis, including support for a unified national army in Yemen.
The agreement on mutual defense signed in Mecca raises questions about its effectiveness in deterring the Houthi threat, Ragheb said. He argued that the agreement lacks clear conditions for triggering collective defense, and its impact on the conflict remains to be seen. The situation in Bab El-Mandeb remains volatile, with many stakeholders watching the developments with concern.
Key points
- The conflict in Bab El-Mandeb has significant implications for regional security and international trade.
- Iran's influence in Yemen is a major concern, with Tehran seeking to expand its military and strategic interests in the region.
- A unified national army in Yemen is crucial to countering the Houthi threat and stabilizing the region.
