Morocco's fuel prices are set to skyrocket, with the price of diesel expected to exceed 16.5 dirhams per liter starting October 1, 2026. This significant increase is attributed to the rising global market prices, which have seen the cost of diesel surge to over $1,400 per ton, or approximately 12 dirhams per liter. When taxes, expenses, and distribution margins are added, the final price for consumers will be substantially higher.
According to Hussein Ymani, head of the National Front for the Salvation of the Moroccan Petroleum Refinery and general secretary of the National Union of Petroleum and Gas Industries, the sharp increase in diesel prices is largely due to the severe decline in diesel production. This decline is a result of the destruction of oil refineries during ongoing wars, the exclusion of high-quality Russian and Iranian oil from diesel production, and bottlenecks in oil and gas trade.
Ymani explained that the global market is currently experiencing a significant disconnect between the crude oil market and the market for refined products. This disconnect is driven by a substantial shortage of petroleum derivatives and dwindling reserves. As a result, the international market is seeing diesel sold at a premium of over 6 dirhams per liter compared to crude oil, highlighting the lucrative nature of the refining industry.
The impact of these global trends is being felt acutely in Morocco, where the country loses over 40 billion dirhams annually on diesel imports alone. This figure does not include the cost of other petroleum products such as gasoline, jet fuel, and industrial fuel. Ymani emphasized that if Morocco's state-owned refinery, SAMIR, had not been privatized, the country would be in a better position to meet its energy needs and mitigate the impact of rising fuel prices.
Ymani argued that the Moroccan government's decision not to intervene in the SAMIR case has had significant consequences. He suggested that had the government taken control of the refinery, it could have helped reduce the cost of fuel for citizens and stabilized the market. However, successive governments have ignored calls to nationalize the refinery or explore alternative solutions.
The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are also contributing to the surge in global energy prices. These geopolitical tensions have created uncertainty and volatility in the market, driving up the cost of oil and petroleum products. As a result, Morocco and other countries are facing significant challenges in managing their energy costs and mitigating the impact on consumers.
The situation highlights the need for Morocco to reassess its energy strategy and explore ways to reduce its dependence on imported fuels. This could involve investing in renewable energy sources, increasing energy efficiency, and diversifying the country's energy mix. By taking proactive steps, Morocco may be able to mitigate the impact of rising global energy prices and create a more sustainable energy future.
Key points
- Morocco's fuel prices are expected to surge to over 16.5 dirhams per liter due to rising global market prices.
- The country's failure to nationalize its state-owned refinery, SAMIR, has contributed to its vulnerability to global market trends.
- Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are driving up global energy prices, further exacerbating the challenge for Morocco and other countries.
