Ethiopia's Tigray rebels have been pushed out of a neighbouring state by a government counter-offensive, according to a humanitarian source. The conflict has triggered a breakdown in the country's relations with Eritrea and Egypt. The rebel Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) launched attacks into the states of Afar and Amhara last week, raising fears of a return to the devastating 2020-2022 civil war.
The government accuses Eritrea of supporting the TPLF, and the two countries broke diplomatic relations on Thursday. Ethiopia expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats and shut its embassy in Asmara, while Eritrea responded that it would "sever all diplomatic ties". This escalation has raised concerns about the stability of the region.
The conflict has also affected Ethiopia's relations with Egypt. Ethiopia expelled an Egyptian diplomat without explanation, prompting a reciprocal move by Cairo. The two countries were already at odds over Addis Ababa's new Nile mega-dam, with Egypt strengthening ties with Eritrea in recent months.
The TPLF's leader, Debretsion Gebremichael, said in a video published late Thursday that "the war is regional and it is a war to control the Red Sea". The African Union, based in Ethiopia, said it was "following with concern the heightened tensions between Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt", urging "maximum restraint".
On the frontlines in northern Ethiopia, there were signs that the Tigrayan rebels were being pushed back. A humanitarian source in Afar said the TPLF was out of Afar as of the previous day. The humanitarian situation has little changed as they raided and destroyed as they left and there is no access to food in the north.
Conflict monitor ACLED said pro-government forces had retaken control of the Afar towns of Abala, Erebti and Megale. The Critical Threats Project, part of the American Enterprise Institute think tank, said the Ethiopian military had "largely repelled the rebel offensive". The government is now engaged in a counter-offensive pushing into Tigrayan territory along three axes towards the regional capital, Mekelle.
For the first time, the conflict appeared to reach the capital overnight Wednesday-Thursday when an explosion was reported at the Ministry of Defence. Drone strikes were the "most likely" cause, a diplomatic source based in the city told AFP. The devices used were likely FPV drones -- "essentially militarised commercial drones fitted with an explosive charge".
Key points
- The conflict has triggered a breakdown in Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea and Egypt.
- The TPLF has been pushed out of the neighbouring state of Afar by a government counter-offensive.
- The conflict has raised concerns about the stability of the region and the potential for a return to civil war.
